The AI Trade Won't Last Forever — Where Does the Money Go Next?
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 20, 2026
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Frames the episode's thesis that the AI-led market run is a historically extreme overshoot that has to revert to the mean, with the peak's timing unknowable.
- Closes the interview by directing viewers to his Substack for his notes on the key takeaways.
Chance Finucane's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues the semiconductor/AI run is so far above its long-term trend that a reversal is inevitable, and that excessive overshoots historically bring excessive retracements.
- Says the timing of the peak is unknowable, anywhere from now to as much as two years out, and points to March 2000, June 2008 and early 2021 as overshoots that reversed severely back through the trend line.
- Cites the dot-com precedent of semiconductors gaining roughly 230% in 14 months before their March 2000 peak, followed by a two-and-a-half-year bear market.
- Expects the current semiconductor cycle's eventual downturn to be severe and take a long time to bottom, noting bubble-type moves of hundreds of percent, such as Cisco in 2000, historically needed about two and a half years to find a new low.
- Says that for the past year he has been positioning for where money rotates when it leaves the AI trade, noting that in 2000-2003 sectors sold off in the late 1990s outperformed even as tech collapsed.