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The Copper Supply Crunch Is Just Beginning | Charles Cryer - Oroco Resource

The Deep Dive Aug 28, 2026

Summary

Declining ore grades, aging mines, and a decade of underinvestment leave too few scalable copper deposits to meet the upcoming supply crunch.

AI data centers and electrification add structural demand on top of cyclical disruptions in Chile and Indonesia, supporting a higher-for-longer copper thesis.

The guest argues Oroco trades near nine cents on the dollar against NPV (Net Present Value), versus twenty-to-forty for peer developers — signaling re-rate potential.

A Phase 2 drill program is upgrading the south zone from inferred to indicated to underpin a mid-2027 PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study).

Mexico has cleared about 85% of its mining permit backlog and named Oroco the only mining project of strategic national importance in Plan Mexico.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Cryer cites Agnico Eagle's San Nicolas copper project as evidence Mexico's permitting environment is opening up under President Sheinbaum, noting it recently received its environmental permit and is a comparable-sized asset to Santo Tomas.
  • He frames the San Nicolas approval as part of a broader direction-of-travel shift away from the prior AMLO-era anti-mining stance, with the SEMARNAT permit backlog reportedly 85% cleared as of the 2026-08-28 as-of date.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hyland argues copper is at the start of a structural supply crunch driven by falling Chilean grades, underinvestment in new supply, AI data-centre demand, and decarbonisation, and expects prices to stay higher for longer.
  • Hyland frames Oroco (called Eroko in the transcript) as mathematically undervalued, pointing to roughly $0.09 on the dollar against an after-tax NPV near $1.2 billion versus peer-stage comparables at $0.20 to $0.40.
  • Hyland presses on Mexico jurisdictional risk but treats recent permitting progress and Oroco's inclusion as the sole mining project in Plan Mexico as ways that concern is being reduced.
  • Hyland questions why capital isn't flowing faster into copper developers given the deficit narrative, attributing it to brownfield-first capital allocation that will eventually need to fund new production.
  • Hyland positions the company for a re-rating, telling viewers to expect further updates as Santo Tomas advances toward a mid-2027 PFS.