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The Danger With SpaceX | Eric Jackson

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 7, 2026

Adam Taggart's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Taggart argues SpaceX's sheer size forces it into the major indices, creating forced ETF buying and making the stock a bellwether that could pull the broader market up or down.
  • He warns that SpaceX's thin float plus heavy insider ownership means substantial supply hits the market as lockups expire, which he expects to pressure the share price.
  • He points out that AI and AI-adjacent companies made up roughly 45% of S&P 500 market cap as of the interview, and asks whether any downgrade to AI capex forecasts would take SpaceX down with the complex.
  • He presses on whether Tesla and SpaceX will eventually merge, from both the valuation angle and the operating idea of SpaceX as the AI 'brain' and Tesla as its physical manifestation.
  • He argues that top companies staying private longer is shutting regular investors out of the best returns, and suggests only blow-ups among overvalued private firms may restore the appeal of going public.

Eric Jackson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Jackson argues that at $200-plus a share SpaceX prices in everything going right — the right tail of the bell curve — and says he would rather buy closer to $100, treating $200 as the likely high end of its range for the next couple of years.
  • He estimates roughly $85 of SpaceX's ~$150 share price as of the interview is tied to the AI business, warning that a market pullback or a weak Nvidia quarter could knock the stock down hard, with excited IPO buyers the first to sell.
  • He frames SpaceX as an AI company now rather than just rockets: Starlink is a profitable cash generator with no real competitors, the fast-growing AI and data-center unit loses large sums daily, and he says he would never short a Musk company.
  • He avoids buying IPOs in their first 6-8 months, expects choppiness as insider lockups expire, and cautions against betting on any single metric like thin float, since heavy insider selling stops mattering if early fundamentals beat expectations.
  • He prefers non-consensus, out-of-favor stocks over mega caps, citing Opendoor (entered at $0.73, $82 target by 2028), Dave (entered near $165, around $400 as of the interview) and Nextdoor at roughly 2x revenue as his current ideas.