The Market Could Drop 30% And Still Be Bullish | Lance Roberts
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jun 26, 2026
Summary
A 20% drop no longer defines a bear market — the guest argues only a break of the market's long-term trendline does.
The 1960s rule came from Alan Shaw, when a 20% decline actually broke the prevailing bullish trend; today it no longer does.
2000-2002 and 2007-2009 were true bear markets: they destroyed years of gains and broke trend structure; post-2009 corrections never did.
With stocks 83% above the long-term trendline, the guest estimates a 40-50% decline would be needed to break the bull trend.
Investors should watch trend structure, not arbitrary percentage thresholds, when deciding whether a selloff is a correction or a bear market.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway As host, he frames the episode around investor concerns that high valuations and oil holding near $90-$100 a barrel point to another bear market, and poses the question of whether 20%-plus corrections have become obsolete.