The Silver Squeeze | Why the Paper Steakhouse Is Running Out of Meat.

The Deep Dive Feb 9, 2026

Summary

Registered COMEX silver has fallen 70% since 2020, with January 2026 deliveries 7x the typical 7 million-ounce pace.

Roughly 80% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead, capping supply as solar, EV, and AI demand surge.

Exchanges have used rule changes and margin hikes to suppress rallies — 1980's Rule 7 halted buying and 2011 saw five margin hikes in nine days.

Only 103 million registered ounces sit against 429–528 million in open interest, so the February 27th first-notice day could expose real stress.

The host treats physical metal as the only no-counterparty-risk silver exposure and argues miners look undervalued at current paper prices.

Top takeaway The host argues the COMEX is approaching a wall on the February 27th notice day, with registered silver at roughly 103 million ounces against 429-528 million ounces of open interest — meaning even 20% of contract holders standing for delivery would exhaust available supply.
He points to a 7x acceleration in January delivery demand (49 million ounces versus a typical 7 million) and 17.8 million ounces standing for delivery in the first week of February 2026.
The host stresses a structural deficit entering its sixth consecutive year, with 80% of silver mined as a byproduct of lead, zinc and copper — capping supply even as AI, EV and solar demand accelerates.
He flags a global inventory drain — Shanghai at lows since 2016, London at historic lows, and China classifying silver as a strategic metal with export controls and a hefty physical premium over the paper price.
The host warns the CME has historically intervened to protect shorts (Silver Rule 7 in January 1980 during the Hunt Brothers squeeze, five margin hikes in nine days in 2011), so he treats silver miners and paper ETFs as short-term rentals and prefers physical metal for long-term exposure, calling major producers undervalued at current prices.

Top takeaway Craig pushes back via a recent tweet citing a contact who has tracked fractional-reserve pricing for 15 years, arguing COMEX will not default in March because a true break would require ~50,000 contracts standing for delivery — triple the 16,000-contract March record set in 2025.
He reinforces the view that the CME makes standing for delivery in size nearly impossible by changing the rules whenever physical inventory gets thin.