Skip to main content

This Could Be Silver’s Next Monster Mine | AbraSilver Diablillos DFS

The Deep Dive Jul 7, 2026

Summary

Junior miners cannot choose when good news lands, and this feasibility study hit on a day silver fell more than 5%.

Phase one is a 25-year open pit processing 9,000 tonnes of ore a day, averaging 10.3 million silver-equivalent ounces annually.

The first five years average 20.3 million silver-equivalent ounces, so the profile is heavily front-loaded rather than level.

AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of $19.98 and $722 million of capital look readily financeable.

Senior producers trade above one times NAV while developers sit at a discount; the host puts this project near the peer average.

Key points on AbraSilver Resource

  • The speaker leads with the Diablillos Phase 1 production profile: a 9,000 tonne-per-day open pit processed through tank leaching that the July 2026 feasibility study expects to average about 20.3 million ounces of silver equivalent in the first five years (13.9 million ounces of silver plus 89,000 ounces of gold), which he argues would rank it as the largest primary silver mine globally, on a reserve base of just under 366 million ounces of proven and probable silver equivalent at 146 grams per tonne.
  • On the study's base case of US$50 silver and US$36.50 gold, the speaker reports an after-tax net present value of C$4.2 billion at a 5% discount rate, an IRR of 41.9% and a payback of 1.7 years, and notes management also published an 8% discount figure plus spot-price and plus-or-minus 20% scenarios that he says are not worth examining closely given the July 2026 price action.
  • For valuation, the speaker divides the C$4.2 billion NPV across roughly 160 million shares for about C$26 per share against a price near C$13 at the time of recording, putting enterprise value at about C$2 billion and EV-to-NAV near 0.49 times, versus senior silver producers he says trade well north of 1 times and up to 2 times NAV.
  • On capital and funding, he cites US$722 million of initial capital including US$98 million of contingency (US$229 million process plant, US$165 million indirects), US$520 million of sustaining capital over the life of mine and an all-in sustaining cost of US$19.98 per ounce, and says the CEO quoted in the video calls that amount easily financeable through equity, debt and stream terms.
  • On timing, the speaker says a preliminary economic assessment on the heap-leached material is due by the end of July 2026, that management is targeting a final investment decision within 12 months and first production by the end of 2029, and that locking in the funding in a silver tape that had just dropped more than 5% in a day and roughly halved from January highs looks like the harder part.

Key points on First Mining Gold

  • In the five precious-metals developers the speaker benchmarks against, First Mining is cited at 0.26 times EV-to-NAV, the lowest multiple in the group and well below the 0.44 times average he uses as the developer benchmark for AbraSilver.

Key points on Seabridge Gold

  • In the speaker's five-developer peer comparison, Seabridge sits at 0.44 times EV-to-NAV, the same figure he gives as the group's pure average and uses as the reference point against AbraSilver's 0.49 times.

Key points on Vizsla Silver

  • Vizsla is one of only two names the speaker says trade above the 0.44 times developer average, at 0.49 times EV-to-NAV, the same level he puts AbraSilver at as of the recording.
  • He attributes Vizsla's higher multiple to recent events rather than to project fundamentals, and sets it aside with Osisko as an outlier when arguing that AbraSilver could screen better against developers.