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Vince Lanci On Gold, Silver, China, Oil, The FED And More.

Peter Grandich Sep 15, 2026 16:49

Luke Gromen's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Cited by the guest for the gold-oil price relationship, which the guest endorses: gold rose first and oil is now turning to catch up.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest says Warsh has signaled a rate hike that markets price at roughly 85% odds as of the September 2026 decision, and warns that skipping it would hurt the bond market, the stock market and the Fed's credibility.
  • The speakers expect Trump to turn on Warsh right after the rate decision, ending what the guest calls their political love affair.

Peter Grandich's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host expects the Fed to hike the day after the as-of date and argues markets would be worse off if it did not.
  • He challenges the belief that rising interest rates are bearish for gold, pointing to gold's two biggest 1970s rallies happening while rates climbed.

Vince Lanci's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues gold is structurally bullish because China, Russia and other nations are moving bullion toward Asia, including China's Hong Kong vault project, while countries such as France and the Netherlands pull their gold out of the US, shifting pricing power east.
  • Says China is buying roughly twice the gold it reports and is de-dollarizing: countries will hold gold as collateral for infrastructure loans rather than sell it, making gold the last asset they sell.
  • Tempers near-term gold enthusiasm as of mid-September 2026: ETF positioning is near all-time highs and seasonal tax-loss selling into October could dampen rallies unless an event intervenes.
  • Expects oil to be significantly higher and to baseline at higher prices a year out, with Shanghai crude around $124, about $14 above Western prices, repeating gold's pattern of China pulling commodity pricing power east.
  • Sees silver in a better position than gold: a stable gold-silver ratio suggests silver leads the next move higher, with US copper stockpiling on possible tariffs giving silver industrial support.