We Need New Tier-1 Copper Mines Every Year | Peter Grandich
The Deep Dive Jun 29, 2026
Summary
Meeting expected copper demand growth alone requires 6 to 11 new tier-1 copper mines (the largest, most economic deposits) every year through 2050.
Demand from AI and electrification sits on top of that baseline, so true copper needs are even larger.
The speaker argues major mining companies avoid half the places they went 20 years ago because social, political, and economic risk is too high.
Chile produces almost 25% of the world's copper, yet rising energy costs and falling ore grades (metal content per tonne) point to more mine closures.
Peter Grandich's takeaways
- Top takeaway Grandich argues 6 to 11 new tier-1 copper mines must come online every year between now (as of June 2026) and 2050 just to cover expected demand growth, before counting any added demand from AI and electrification.
- He argues major mining companies will no longer go to about half the places they operated in 20 years ago, because the social, political and economic risk is too high.
- He points to Chile, which produces almost 25% of the world's copper, as squeezed by social and political issues, declining ore grades and rising energy costs.
- He expects more Chilean mines to start closing as grades fall and energy costs rise.