Why SpaceX's Valuation Is Now A Market Wide Risk #SPCX
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 9, 2026
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway As host, frames the segment around how SpaceX, now the biggest IPO ever, will influence the Wall Street landscape.
Elon Musk's takeaways
- Top takeaway Mentioned by the guest as a pattern: Musk's publicly traded stocks have usually traded toward the bullish end of their range.
Eric Jackson's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues SpaceX is now valued mainly as an AI company — the largest share of its valuation reflects its expected role in the AI revolution — so if it stumbles in the next few quarters it could trigger a significant re-rating of AI stocks and the NASDAQ, as in the dot-com era.
- Says above $200 a share (trillions in market cap) investors are pricing in that everything goes right, and the stock may deserve only about a quarter of that valuation.
- Would rather buy closer to $100 a share, where downside is more modest; around $150 the risk/reward is not compelling and he sees $200-plus as the high end of the trading range for the next couple of years.
- Never buys IPOs in their first 6-8 months, noting many trade well below their issue price by month eight and that insider lock-ups expiring around month six add selling pressure.
- Notes SpaceX's size forced its immediate inclusion in major indices, making index funds and ETFs forced buyers and giving the stock outsized influence over the broader market.