Barrick Prints a Record Q4 — Then Drops 6% on the IPO and Production Story

Barrick Mining closed 2025 with the strongest quarter in its history and watched its stock drop 6% on the day. The disconnect — a record quarter meeting a sell-down — is the story.

Q4 revenue hit $6 billion, up 45% from Q3 and 17% ahead of the $5.1 billion consensus. Net earnings reached $2.4 billion, with adjusted net earnings of $1.8 billion, up 79% sequentially. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $1.04, beating the $0.85 analyst estimate. The driver was gold: the average realized price in Q4 came in at $4,177 an ounce, up 21% quarter-over-quarter, according to the host of The Deep Dive.

Cash flow told a more nuanced story. Net cash from operating activities was $2.7 billion (up 13%). Free cash flow totaled $1.6 billion (up 9%). Attributable free cash flow — the figure adjusted for Barrick's ownership stake in joint ventures like Nevada Gold Mines — was $1.1 billion, actually down 8% from Q3.

For the full year, revenue came in at $12.9 billion (up 31%) and adjusted earnings hit $4.1 billion (up 87%), translating to $2.42 in EPS versus $1.26 in 2024. Attributable free cash flow for the year was $2.8 billion, a 160% jump year-over-year.

The balance sheet crossed into net cash territory in Q4. Cash rose to $6.7 billion (helped by the sale of Hemlo and Tongan), debt sat flat at $4.7 billion, and net debt swung from a $323 million deficit to a $2 billion surplus. Management responded by lifting the payout: the dividend rose 140% to 42 cents a share, $500 million in buybacks was deployed, and the company returned $2.4 billion to shareholders in 2025. The new policy commits 50% of attributable free cash flow to investor returns going forward.

The production side is where the optimism ran into the wall. Q4 produced 871,000 ounces of gold and 62,000 tons of copper. Gold cash costs were $12.05 per ounce with an AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of $15.81. Copper C1 cash costs were $2.45 per pound and AISC $3.61. Full-year gold output was 3.3 million ounces, in line with guidance but down 17% from 2024.

For 2026, Barrick guided gold production of 2.9 to 3.3 million ounces — another year-over-year decline on the surface, though management argues that excluding the assets divested in 2025, output is actually a slight improvement. Cash cost guidance is a midpoint of $1,400 per ounce with AISC of $1,855. Copper guidance is 190,000 to 220,000 tons with a C1 midpoint of $2.32 per pound and an AISC midpoint of $3.60.

The bigger headline is the planned IPO. The board approved preparations to package Barrick's North American Gold assets — including its joint venture interest in Nevada Gold Mines and the Fourmile project — into a new publicly listed entity, with Barrick retaining a controlling stake. The transaction is targeted for late 2026, which means Barrick's 2025 results may represent the peak earnings period for the current corporate shape.

Leadership is also new. Mark Bristow was ousted in September, and Mark Hill has been officially named permanent CEO. One structural change is already visible: mine plans are now built bottom-up by site teams rather than handed down from the C-suite, a shift that explains why 2026 guidance reflects what the operations are actually capable of rather than aspirational targets.

On valuation, the host argues Barrick screens cheap. The stock trades at an EV-to-net-income multiple of 14.9x versus a peer average of 21.6x, and at 7.1x EV-to-EBITDA against a peer average of 9.4x. Whether the market closes those gaps depends on whether investors believe the gold price holds near current levels.

The takeaway is a clean split: the income statement is the best Barrick has ever printed, but the production and corporate-structure headlines tell investors to expect a lower run-rate earnings base once the North American Gold IPO closes late next year.