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Bert Dohmen

Founder & President | Dohmen Capital Research | Macro Market Strategist

"Macro market calls including predicting the 2008 crisis in 2007 and early warnings on super inflation"

Analyst

Biography

Bert Dohmen is the founder and president of Dohmen Capital Research and the hedge fund advisory firm Dohmen Capital Management. He is a macro-driven market strategist with decades of experience calling major economic turning points. For resource investors, his relevance lies in his willingness to make specific, time-stamped calls on inflation, monetary policy, and hard-asset cycles.

His most notable call came in 2007, when he publicly predicted that 2008 would bring a severe global financial crisis — the worst since the 1930s. He has also been an early and vocal warner on inflation, having flagged what he termed "super inflation" ahead of the broad consensus. He is the author of Prelude to Meltdown, a book published before the 2008 crisis that outlined the systemic risks building in the financial system. He publishes the Wellington Letter and operates HedgeFolios, a platform providing hedge fund–style portfolio research.

Dohmen evaluates markets through a top-down, macroeconomic framework. He focuses on central bank policy, credit cycles, and liquidity flows — particularly how excess credit creation drives inflation and, in turn, demand for hard assets like gold. He has argued that the early stages of soaring inflation are beneficial for inflation hedges, making precious metals a core holding during transitional periods. For mining investors, this means tracking his macro calls as a potential timing indicator for precious metals exposure.

His current focus is on what he describes as a deepening structural crisis: ballooning private credit markets, rising sovereign debt, and geopolitical instability. While his longer-term forecasts are decidedly bearish — he has described a coming period potentially worse than the 1930s depression — he distinguishes between systemic risk and tradable market opportunities. Investors who follow Dohmen get a disciplined, macro-first perspective on when risk assets, including mining stocks, may face headwinds and when precious metals may offer protection.

Videos (1)

Bert Dohmen: Wars, Famine and a 90% Crash Ahead - 'Worse Than the 1930s'

Bert Dohmen: Wars, Famine and a 90% Crash Ahead - 'Worse Than the 1930s'

guest Jul 30, 2026
  • Top takeaway Bert Dohmen argues the current setup mirrors 2008 and the 1930s — and may be worse — forecasting an 80–90% plunge in major equity indices triggered by a private credit crisis in which even BlackRock cannot return investor money.
  • He frames the Strait of Hormuz closure and farmers' inability to afford or access fertilizer as catalysts for a coming agricultural shortage, and recommends broad commodity indices (DBC and DBA) over single names.
  • He expects gold's bull market to resume once the last remaining bulls are washed out, stressing that war is not what is bullish for gold — inflation is — and treats physical gold and silver as the core wealth-preservation hedge against a plausible US-dollar hyperinflation.
  • He lists bubble markers including the SpaceX IPO, single-stock futures contracts, prediction markets, $1.5 trillion in margin debt, and seven stocks making up 40% of the S&P 500's market cap as signs of a major top, not a routine correction.
  • He advises prioritizing risk over return, lengthening time horizons to escape algorithmic day-trader manipulation, and holding cash on the sidelines so retail investors do not end up as the 'bag holder' on the way down.

Bert Dohmen warns a private credit crisis could trigger a global depression worse than the 1930s, with massive capital destruction ahead. The guest argues gold's pullback is a healthy washout; once the last bulls leave, inflation (not war) drives the next leg higher. Dohmen forecasts an 80 to 90 percent market plunge, with seven stocks now driving 40 percent of the S&P 500's capitalization. The guest favors broad (DVC) and agricultural (DBA) commodities as the Strait of Hormuz closure threatens a global food shortage. In a hyperinflation scenario, Dohmen advises borrowing aggressively to buy real assets, the playbook used by Hugo Stinnes.

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Key Quotes

"The initial stages of soaring inflation are actually beneficial for inflation hedges."

— YouTube interview on inflation and Fed policy

Key Works

Book published before the 2008 financial crisis outlining the systemic risks building in global markets.

Dohmen's subscription investment newsletter covering macro analysis, market cycles, and trading strategy.

Specializations

GoldPrecious MetalsMacro EconomicsInflation HedgingCredit CyclesMonetary Policy

Disclaimer: Bert Dohmen has NOT endorsed this platform and is not affiliated with Pixys in any way.