Bert Dohmen: Wars, Famine and a 90% Crash Ahead - 'Worse Than the 1930s'

Commodity Culture Jul 30, 2026

Summary

Bert Dohmen warns a private credit crisis could trigger a global depression worse than the 1930s, with massive capital destruction ahead.

The guest argues gold's pullback is a healthy washout; once the last bulls leave, inflation (not war) drives the next leg higher.

Dohmen forecasts an 80 to 90 percent market plunge, with seven stocks now driving 40 percent of the S&P 500's capitalization.

The guest favors broad (DVC) and agricultural (DBA) commodities as the Strait of Hormuz closure threatens a global food shortage.

In a hyperinflation scenario, Dohmen advises borrowing aggressively to buy real assets, the playbook used by Hugo Stinnes.

Top takeaway Bert Dohmen cites Warren Buffett sitting on roughly $360 billion in cash — publicly saying he cannot find stocks worth investing in — as independent validation of his own bearish stance.
He concedes Buffett may have gone to cash 'too early' and missed some upside, but argues being early is the only way to avoid an 80–90% plunge and that exact-day market timing is not required.

Top takeaway Bert Dohmen argues the current setup mirrors 2008 and the 1930s — and may be worse — forecasting an 80–90% plunge in major equity indices triggered by a private credit crisis in which even BlackRock cannot return investor money.
He frames the Strait of Hormuz closure and farmers' inability to afford or access fertilizer as catalysts for a coming agricultural shortage, and recommends broad commodity indices (DBC and DBA) over single names.
He expects gold's bull market to resume once the last remaining bulls are washed out, stressing that war is not what is bullish for gold — inflation is — and treats physical gold and silver as the core wealth-preservation hedge against a plausible US-dollar hyperinflation.
He lists bubble markers including the SpaceX IPO, single-stock futures contracts, prediction markets, $1.5 trillion in margin debt, and seven stocks making up 40% of the S&P 500's market cap as signs of a major top, not a routine correction.
He advises prioritizing risk over return, lengthening time horizons to escape algorithmic day-trader manipulation, and holding cash on the sidelines so retail investors do not end up as the 'bag holder' on the way down.

Top takeaway As host of Commodity Culture, Jesse Day structures the conversation around the brewing private credit crisis, the recent pullback in gold despite the war, and the parallels he sees between today's market and the late 1970s.
He presses Bert Dohmen on the geopolitical impact on global markets, the risk of US-dollar hyperinflation spreading to other fiat currencies, and how long a post-crash recovery could realistically take.