Bob Thompson
Senior Portfolio Manager | Raymond James | Precious Metals & Mining Cycle Analyst
"Mining cycle framework and contrarian precious metals analysis"
Biography
Bob Thompson is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Raymond James in Vancouver, where he manages portfolios with a focus on precious metals and mining equities. He has become a recognized voice in the resource investment community for his analysis of commodity bull and bear cycles — particularly his framework for identifying where we are in the cycle and what that means for gold and silver investors.
Thompson's approach centers on what he calls the "mining clock," a framework for gauging where the mining sector sits within its broader cyclical rhythm. He pays close attention to the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV — Canada's junior stock exchange, home to most small-cap mining companies) as a sentiment barometer. When the TSXV sat more than 65% below its prior peaks despite broader equity strength, Thompson flagged it as evidence the mining sector remained deeply undervalued and unloved — a condition he views as a setup for significant capital rotation into the sector.
His analysis blends technical indicators with sentiment reading. Thompson tracks positioning data — including commercial short positions in gold and silver — alongside momentum and breadth measures in mining shares. He has repeatedly emphasized that extreme pessimism in the mining sector, while uncomfortable, historically creates the strongest buying opportunities. Rather than reacting to headlines, he assesses how much news is already priced in, looking for gaps between sentiment and fundamentals.
Thompson focuses primarily on gold and silver, with particular attention to junior miners and the Canadian small-cap mining universe. He has publicly argued that we are in the early-to-middle innings of a commodity bull market — not the beginning, but far from the end. Investors following Thompson gain a disciplined framework for thinking about timing, valuation, and emotional discipline in a sector notorious for punishing both early entrants and latecomers.
Videos (2)
The Biggest Mistake Gold & Silver Investors Make | Bob Thompson #shorts
- Top takeaway The speaker argues most precious-metals investors are 'tourists' who enter when the market feels comfortable and exit when volatility hits, which is why the least committed participants tend to be the ones who lose money.
- He prefers slow compounding (about 2% a month, roughly 25% a year over eight years) over parabolic moves, because parabolic breakouts historically retrace all the way back down to the prior breakout level.
- Despite expecting a 'massive run' in silver, he warns the path will be designed to shake out as many participants as possible along the way.
- He frames the current setup as sitting on the other side of a parabola, back near where the prior breakout occurred, implying the painful shakeout phase is already underway.
Silver parabolic rallies typically end in sharp corrections that punish unprepared holders and shake out new entrants. Most precious-metals investors are 'tourists' who buy when markets feel comfortable and sell when storms hit. A steady 25%-a-year grind over 8 years would outperform the volatile spike-and-crash pattern Bob prefers to avoid. Low crowd participation in bull markets historically coincides with the strongest gains — staying invested through volatility separates winners.
Gold and Silver at a Breaking Point: Is the Next Major Rally About to Begin? | Bob Thompson
- Top takeaway Thompson argues the mining sector is still at '7 o'clock' on the cycle, not near the end, because tourists are still pessimistic and generalists have not been forced to rotate into gold stocks.
- He says a capital rotation event — where technology and growth names start hurting generalist performance — is what is needed to draw flows into mining equities.
- Thompson suggests silver could be pushed back below $48 or $47 to shake out non-believers, but he expects a V-shaped recovery once selling exhausts.
- He cites SILJ's move from below $8 in February 2024 to $24 today as evidence that buying at the right point protects capital even through deep drawdowns.
Gold and silver are finding support after a hawkish July; Bob Thompson argues extreme pessimism sets up a V-shaped recovery for miners. The guest frames miner buying as defensive wealth preservation, citing SILJ's 200% gain from the Feb 2024 'puking point' near $8. Capital rotation is what unlocks the next leg: precious metals is 1% of the S&P, so miners stay invisible until tech stocks fall. The pair maps mining-cycle signals onto tech: SpaceX and Open AI IPOs plus stock-funded M&A echo late-stage excesses that historically fail. Templeton's quote — bull markets are born on pessimism and die on euphoria — frames precious metals at '7 o'clock' with room to run.
Key Quotes
"How many assets in the world are down 65% from their highs? Not many."
— Sprott Money interview on gold and silver cycle investing
"We are in the middle innings of a commodity bull market cycle."
— The David Lin Report podcast
Key Works
Monthly wrap-up with Craig Hemke for Sprott Money breaking down the current position in the precious metals cycle
Sprott Money blog interview covering technical analysis of gold, short positioning, and market structure
Disclaimer: Bob Thompson has NOT endorsed this platform and is not affiliated with Pixys in any way.