Skip to main content

Gold and Silver at a Breaking Point: Is the Next Major Rally About to Begin? | Bob Thompson

Sprott Money Jul 27, 2026

Summary

Gold and silver are finding support after a hawkish July; Bob Thompson argues extreme pessimism sets up a V-shaped recovery for miners.

The guest frames miner buying as defensive wealth preservation, citing SILJ's 200% gain from the Feb 2024 'puking point' near $8.

Capital rotation is what unlocks the next leg: precious metals is 1% of the S&P, so miners stay invisible until tech stocks fall.

The pair maps mining-cycle signals onto tech: SpaceX and Open AI IPOs plus stock-funded M&A echo late-stage excesses that historically fail.

Templeton's quote — bull markets are born on pessimism and die on euphoria — frames precious metals at '7 o'clock' with room to run.

Key points on Newmont

  • Bob Thompson notes Newmont reported Q2 earnings on July 23, 2026 with indications of a solid result, yet the stock opened lower the next day.
  • He frames the price action as evidence that generalists currently ignore gold equities while the sector sits at less than 1% of the S&P 500.

Key points on Snowline Gold Corp

  • Bob Thompson cites Snowline Gold Corp as an outsized-return example, noting it traded below $1 a few years ago and now trades at $15.
  • He suggests Snowline Gold will 'probably get taken out' at some point, framing it as a likely M&A candidate.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Bob Thompson notes Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish Fed speech and his pledge not to give forward guidance.
  • He contrasts Warsh with Volcker — the only Fed chair who 'did anything about it' — and argues today's debt levels prevent a Volcker-style tightening.

Scott Bessent's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Craig Hemke argues that Scott Bessent is taking political heat because he anticipates a financial restructuring.
  • Hemke says Bessent wants to be remembered as the official who managed that restructuring, framing his Treasury role as a legacy play.

Craig Hemke's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hemke argues the market has likely reached peak hawkishness, with gold still holding above $4,000 and silver above $48 despite higher rates and a stronger dollar, suggesting a short-term floor.
  • He frames gold as defensive capital preservation rather than an offensive bet, citing Eric Sprott's stated 2000 rationale that gold was bought to survive the financial crisis.
  • Hemke argues miners are still at '7 o'clock' on the cycle because generalists do not yet feel performance pain from underweighting gold equities.
  • He notes that Mag7 behavior — overvalued-stock M&A and capex blowouts — mirrors the mining cycle at 10 o'clock, suggesting the broader equity market is entering euphoria.

Eric Sprott's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hemke quotes Eric Sprott as saying he originally bought gold in 2000 not for offense but to survive the coming financial crisis.
  • Bob Thompson references Eric Sprott's chairmanship of Kirkland Lake Gold, which rose roughly 500% during the 2017-18 bear market for the sector.

Warren Buffett's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Bob Thompson cites Warren Buffett's 1999 refusal to own tech stocks as the template for how value investors get discredited at market tops.
  • He notes Buffett was mocked for 6-8 months during the dot-com bubble before being proven right, drawing a parallel to today's emerging discreditation of value investors.

Jeremy Grantham's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Bob Thompson points to Jeremy Grantham being publicly discredited on another show by host Kernen as a current example of smart investors being dismissed.
  • He frames Grantham's treatment alongside Buffett's 1999 experience as evidence the discreditation phase at market tops has started.

Bob Thompson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Thompson argues the mining sector is still at '7 o'clock' on the cycle, not near the end, because tourists are still pessimistic and generalists have not been forced to rotate into gold stocks.
  • He says a capital rotation event — where technology and growth names start hurting generalist performance — is what is needed to draw flows into mining equities.
  • Thompson suggests silver could be pushed back below $48 or $47 to shake out non-believers, but he expects a V-shaped recovery once selling exhausts.
  • He cites SILJ's move from below $8 in February 2024 to $24 today as evidence that buying at the right point protects capital even through deep drawdowns.

Stan Druckenmiller's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hemke cites Stan Druckenmiller's view that peak hawkishness and worst-case news sentiment is the time to start looking for buying opportunities.
  • He applies Druckenmiller's framing to the current precious metals setup as a reason to begin adding to positions.