Dan Steffens

Brien Lundin & Dan Steffens - Gold & Oil Stocks: Spin Outs, Near Term Producers, Growth Companies

• Top takeaway Steffens argues the NYMEX futures market is a poor forecast of physical reality: oil equities are being valued as if crude is $60 to $70 while crude sits near $90, so producers should report much better results than the tape implies.
• He says Wall Street analysts stress-test producers against a strip showing $60 to $70 oil even though the companies stay profitable at $90, which he blames on fear and miscommunication rather than the fundamentals.
• He prefers large caps with strong marketing groups that can guarantee refinery deliveries and realise higher prices on physical barrels, and notes several trade at a discount to first-call targets.
• For bigger upside he points to his small-cap growth portfolio, saying he is very bullish on that group and expects several of the names to double this year.
• On natural gas he says North America still has plenty for now, but six consecutive storage builds came in well below the five-year average and LNG exports are set to rise by about 4 billion cubic feet per day, so he sees a good chance of $4 gas before Christmas and uses $3.50 for next year.

Lundin calls precious metals a full bull market, arguing the fundamental drivers are the most solid he has seen since the 1970s. Gold's September pullback tracks rising bond yields, not broken fundamentals — algo traders reverted to the old 'higher yields, sell gold' reflex. Beaver Creek chatter centered on spin-outs, 9.9% strategic stakes, and toll milling — renting mill capacity rather than building it. Lundin wants each spun-out asset valued individually, and reads a strategic's stake as validation only if they fund the next raise. Steffens says oil equities trade as if crude is $60 while it fetches $90; refinery outages, not crude scarcity, squeeze diesel and jet fuel.

Mike Larson & Dan Steffens - Are Gold and Silver Out of Purgatory? Plus High-Upside Energy Stocks

• Top takeaway Dan argues oil has to keep creeping higher because roughly 14% of global refining capacity is offline, including Middle East damage from Iranian drones and Russian infrastructure damage from Ukraine
• The guest frames the U.S.-Iran conflict as a "battle for the Strait of Hormuz" that won't end before the midterms or year-end, with a 12-18 month rebalancing window even if a deal is reached
• Dan is constructive on small-cap oil and gas producers trading below book value with pristine balance sheets and free cash flow, highlighting Baytex, Riley Exploration, Rubellite, Rok Resources, and Calibre Global Energy as standout picks
• The guest argues against hedging at current levels, notes the front of the curve is over $80 through December (signaling a current shortage), and sees Cushing inventories near 21M barrels versus 80M capacity as evidence of tightness
• Dan warns that U.S. SPR caverns risk damage if drained further, with 5.3 million barrels pulled last week, and notes Western Canadian gas prices "still stink" even as NGLs have firmed

Precious metals' rebound looks like a lasting turn after the 2025 blow-off, supported by global bond interventions signaling dollar debasement. The Treasury doubling long-bond purchases and helping Japan intervene in yen reinforce gold and silver as hedges against currency weakness. Government-led critical minerals investment is creating a multi-year tailwind for resource equities, including rare earths, uranium, and copper tied to AI infrastructure. Energy stocks are outperforming crude oil because refinery damage and supply-chain disruptions will take 12-18 months to fully rebalance. Small-cap and mid-cap oil and gas names with clean balance sheets offer compelling valuations, including Baytex, Crescent Energy, Matador, and Devon Energy.

Jeff Christian & Dan Steffens - PGM Market Overview, In Depth Oil Commentary

• Top takeaway The guest argues the real oil supply shock arrives in August 2026 and that oil should be worth $120 to $150 a barrel, against just under $85 at the July 25, 2026 recording; he says the calm price is about paper traders who fear the US president could suddenly declare a deal.
• He expects the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to run out of drawable oil in August because a third of its sites may already be at tank bottoms, which he says would leave European refineries unable to supply Europe.
• He says refined products are where the shortage already shows: he cites jet fuel around $140 a barrel while crude was near $75, and OECD refined-product inventories at the lowest days of cover ever measured.
• He treats the Strait of Hormuz supply chain as physically broken, citing roughly 9.9 million barrels a day of shut-in wells in surrounding countries by end of June 2026 with no quick way to restore them, and expects the conflict to run into 2027.
• He advises investors that if oil stays above $80 these companies are extremely profitable, and says he personally favours names with sustainable dividends and buybacks rather than producers traded on hedges.

Christian argues platinum's run to a $2,900 January record came from investors chasing a deficit story, not from autocatalyst demand. PGMs (platinum group metals — six noble metals clustered on the periodic table) are industrial metals, losing share as battery electric vehicles replace catalyst demand. Fuel cell and hydrogen forecasts keep underdelivering, while opaque minor PGMs like iridium and ruthenium offer price upside with almost no way to exit. Steffens expects the real oil supply shock in August as US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns stall and crack spreads, the crude-to-product margin, hit extremes. Energy producers at $80-plus return cash through dividends and buybacks rather than adding rigs, and Magnolia's $4 billion deal signals renewed M&A appetite.

Weekend Show - Jeff Christian & Dan Steffens - A New Reality for Asset Prices?

Jeff Christian argues that structural investment demand is driving a long-term upward revaluation of gold and silver, with higher average prices expected despite near-term corrections. Christian sees silver's price driven by both industrial demand and growing investment interest, while platinum and palladium face more nuanced supply-demand dynamics. Dan Steffens highlights declining global oil inventories and points to strong dividend yields and growth potential in upstream oil and gas producers.

Rick Bensingor & Dan Steffens - Is Gold Ready to Explode? Plus, Top Oil Stock Picks

Rick Bensignor maintains a structurally bullish long-term outlook on gold due to currency devaluation but warns of a near-term correction driven by a potential US dollar short-squeeze. Dan Steffens highlights a structural supply-demand squeeze in the oil market, noting staggering SPR drawdowns and recommending unhedged North American producers. Technical charts indicate global interest rates have bottomed, physical oil risks skew heavily to the upside, and the US equity market is flashing exhaustion signals.

Brien Lundin & Dan Steffens - Metals & Energy Breakdown: Structural Shifts and Market Consolidation

Precious metals are undergoing a healthy sideways consolidation, setting a strong base for the next major leg up in the ongoing commodity bull market cycle. Copper is leading the metals complex with strong bullish momentum, creating significant investment opportunities in undervalued exploration-stage junior mining stocks. Structural damage to global oil supply chains has established a new $90+ floor for oil prices, presenting asymmetric upside in small-cap energy equities.

Dana Lyons & Dan Steffens - Was This Week A Top In Gold & Silver? Is The Play Now Oil and Nat Gas?

• Top takeaway Steffens argues the recent natural gas spike is driven by severe cold weather, well freeze-offs cutting US gas output 20-25 Bcf/day, and the LNG export ramp, with Henry Hub cash hitting $28 last Sunday.
• He is bullish on US natural gas into 2026, forecasting a roughly $4 yearly average and Q4 highs of $4.25-$4.50, while being notably cautious on Canadian gas due to a deep-shallow gas overhang.
• Steffens is more constructive on Canadian oil names than US ones, preferring dividend-paying producers with 6-8%+ yields because the distributions reduce risk in a still-uncertain oil-price backdrop.
• He flags two US special situations — Crescent Energy's post-merger first combined quarter and Civitas's merger into SM Energy creating the sixth-largest US upstream — as analyst-coverage catalysts.
• Steffens prefers small-cap Canadian juniors for outsized returns, citing his personal track record of 500% gains, while acknowledging large-caps offer dividend safety for bigger funds.

Silver volume surged 1000% on a reversal day — Dana Lyons flags that as a classic blow-off warning near a short-term top. Dan Steffens sees a structural natural-gas bull case from winter freeze-offs, deep storage deficits, and rising LNG export demand. Dividend-paying Canadian energy producers offering 6-8% yields are Steffens' preferred way to play an oil tape stuck near $60. Junior miners lagging metals price action is a rotation risk worth watching if precious-metals momentum fades. Permian gas growth is throttled by pipeline takeaway, keeping Gulf Coast-focused gas producers best-positioned for 2026.