Dana Lyons & Dan Steffens - Was This Week A Top In Gold & Silver? Is The Play Now Oil and Nat Gas?

The KE Report Jan 31, 2026

Summary

Silver volume surged 1000% on a reversal day — Dana Lyons flags that as a classic blow-off warning near a short-term top.

Dan Steffens sees a structural natural-gas bull case from winter freeze-offs, deep storage deficits, and rising LNG export demand.

Dividend-paying Canadian energy producers offering 6-8% yields are Steffens' preferred way to play an oil tape stuck near $60.

Junior miners lagging metals price action is a rotation risk worth watching if precious-metals momentum fades.

Permian gas growth is throttled by pipeline takeaway, keeping Gulf Coast-focused gas producers best-positioned for 2026.

Top takeaway Steffens argues the recent natural gas spike is driven by severe cold weather, well freeze-offs cutting US gas output 20-25 Bcf/day, and the LNG export ramp, with Henry Hub cash hitting $28 last Sunday.
He is bullish on US natural gas into 2026, forecasting a roughly $4 yearly average and Q4 highs of $4.25-$4.50, while being notably cautious on Canadian gas due to a deep-shallow gas overhang.
Steffens is more constructive on Canadian oil names than US ones, preferring dividend-paying producers with 6-8%+ yields because the distributions reduce risk in a still-uncertain oil-price backdrop.
He flags two US special situations — Crescent Energy's post-merger first combined quarter and Civitas's merger into SM Energy creating the sixth-largest US upstream — as analyst-coverage catalysts.
Steffens prefers small-cap Canadian juniors for outsized returns, citing his personal track record of 500% gains, while acknowledging large-caps offer dividend safety for bigger funds.

Top takeaway Lyons argues the precious metals rally may be topping near-term after Monday's reversal, when silver's SLV ETF traded 10x its normal daily volume and hit his Fib extension target near $109 — what he calls a panic event.
He differentiates the rally as sustainable in gold (volume only ~40% above the prior 5-year average) versus more mania-like in palladium, platinum, and silver, where 2026 volume jumps ranged from several hundred to roughly 900%.
Lyons has been trimming on Fibonacci and prior all-time-high levels, taking profits on eight of nine metals and miners positions this week while still holding his copper exposure.
He observes a notable disconnect since December 2025 between gold and silver prices hitting record highs and mining equities (GDJ, SILJ) selling off the same day.
Lyons remains constructive on US equities broadly, citing equal-weight S&P and small-cap pure value (RZV) breakouts that support his relative-strength model staying bullish.