Dana Lyons

Dana Lyons - Broad Commodity Trends, Gold & Silver Downside Levels, and Historic S&P Divergence

• Top takeaway His top call is caution on US equities: he notes the cap-weighted S&P 500 fell less than half a percent in September while the equal-weight RSP fell more than 5%, which he calls the worst monthly divergence in that index's history, and he sees significant near- to intermediate-term risk even though he does not think the final long-term top is in.
• He says his quantitative risk model detected deteriorating market internals at the end of August and issued a sell signal about a week into September, so he spent late August and early September raising cash and adding hedges.
• He remains bullish on commodities longer term, with broad funds such as COM and COMT looking bullish to his models, energy among the more bullish commodity markets, and pullbacks in the last few weeks a level at which he would re-enter longs.
• He is bullish on copper, saying every pullback has produced a higher low and the metal is testing all-time highs, and he is maintaining a healthy long position in it with a lesser bullish view on copper miners.
• He is hedged and near-term bearish on gold and silver, looking for roughly 10% to 15% more downside in SLV toward the upper 40s and for GLD to approach 350, while still staying in the long-term precious-metals bull camp.

The guest's models keep a long-term commodity bull market in play, treating the recent two-week pullback as a chance to add. Copper's technical structure remains bullish on successive higher lows; he stays long the metal and adds on weakness. Still bullish long-term on precious metals, he is hedged near-term, with silver's SLV ETF flagged for a 10-15% drop toward the upper $40s. Equal-weight S&P weakness of over 5% in September 2026 against a nearly flat index marks its worst divergence on record. He expects election-driven volatility through October, a month that produces both the most crashes and the most market bottoms.

Peter Boockvar & Dana Lyons - Commodities Hit 14-Year Highs as the 40-Year Bond Bull Dies

• Top takeaway Lyons says gold and silver are still in a post-blow-off consolidation since the January-February peak, but he has flipped from hedged to 'buying the dip' in gold and silver miners.
• He flags a constructive pennant breakout in COPX copper miners and a multi-year higher-highs, higher-lows pattern in CPER copper, expecting a resolution to the upside.
• Lyons highlights XLE oil equities breaking out of a long-term cup-and-handle back to 2014 highs and making new all-time highs ahead of crude itself.
• On rates, he argues the 60-year interest-rate cycle likely bottomed during COVID and that rates are heading higher over many years, framing the move toward 5% as normalization.
• Internationally he prefers developed markets (Spain, Italy, Canada, EWC) and is shying away from emerging markets and AI/semiconductor-heavy plays like EWY and EWT.

Bond vigilantes now set the cost of capital — Japan's yield curve control exit and 2021–22 inflation ended the 40-year bond bull. A broad commodity supercycle is underway, driven by years of underinvestment in oil, gas, and industrial metals; CRB hit a 14-year high. Boockvar warns Treasury intervention in long yields invites escalating tests from bond vigilantes; price fixes rarely hold. Gold miners earn outsized margins — AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) runs $1,500–$2,000 against gold near $4,000. Energy equities (XLE) hit new all-time highs on a multi-year cup-and-handle breakout while crude oil itself stays range-bound.

Doc & Dana Lyons - Technical Setups: Gold, Silver, GDX, Copper, Oil, Uranium, Bond, Value Stocks

• Top takeaway Dana is long gold via GLD in a medium-sized position after covering shorts and hedges, but says he is not yet ready to flip aggressively long on gold, silver, or the miners.
• He flags GLD resistance near the 200-day around $412 and SLV near $64 as tough technical hurdles that would need to be cleared before he would get more bullish.
• On copper, he is constructive — CPER looks like an ascending triangle while COPX is forming a pennant continuation pattern he expects to resolve to the upside.
• He is also constructive on energy equities (XLE, FXN), describing a long-term cup-and-handle breakout now digesting, and points to MLPX as a high-yielding holding that has held gains well.
• Dana is rotating out of growth/momentum/semiconductors and emerging markets, instead concentrating in value sectors like healthcare (XLV) and financials (XLF) that keep printing new highs.

Richard Postma reads the precious-metals rebound as a temporary bounce within a corrective phase, with $4000 gold and unfilled chart gaps as the next test. Postma ties the medium-term gold outlook to a bearish bond-market setup, citing the convergence of the 50-month and 200-month moving averages. Dana Lyons flipped long GLD from a short but stays neutral on silver and miners until price reclaims the 200-day and 50-week resistance. Lyons remains bullish copper and copper miners, framing COPX's pattern as a continuation pennant with only about 38% of the prior rally retraced. Lyons' portfolio is overweight healthcare and financials and is actively trimming growth, momentum, and semiconductor exposure as leadership rotates.

Dana Lyons - Growth vs. Value: Navigating Equity Shifts and Commodity Trends

• Top takeaway Argues a longer-term, possibly secular, rotation from growth into value is underway after roughly 20 years of growth leadership, and calls value the safer play versus growth over the next 10 years.
• Says rotation into financials, healthcare, real estate and industrials has kept his breadth-based models positive even as mega-cap tech rolls over, but warns breadth momentum is fading, so the seasonally soft August-to-October window could still produce a correction.
• Remains short gold miners and short silver while hedged in gold, looking to cover around GLD 353 and SLV 48, and expects the metals complex to need months or even years of digestion rather than an immediate return to new highs.
• Is very constructive on energy stocks long term after a 'dead decade,' but in sell-the-rip mode near term — reducing exposure into the bounce and waiting for pullbacks to add, taking encouragement from the XOI index reclaiming new highs above its March-April levels.
• Sees the long-term bond yield cycle rising for possibly a couple of decades and the US dollar in an intermediate-term uptrend, so he views the defensive shift as happening within equities rather than as a flight into bonds or other safe havens.

Dana Lyons argues flat US averages hide a healthy rotation as financials, healthcare and value sectors fill the leadership void left by mega-cap tech. Lyons expects gold's two-year rally to need a long digestion, eyeing the GLD ETF near 353 and SLV near 48 for a possible intermediate low. Copper never went blow-off, Lyons notes, so it has less excess to unwind; he stays long and sees it as a bullish tell for metals. Bonds offer no haven while the 30-year yield tests multi-decade highs; Lyons gives the benefit of the doubt to a stronger US dollar near term. Lyons is selling energy strength after a stronger-than-expected bounce, but stays constructive long term and plans to buy pullbacks in the sector.

Dana Lyons & Marc Chandler - Metals Seasonality Vs Technicals, US Dollar Strength Vs Diversification

• Top takeaway Lyons says precious metals are still in a short-term downtrend after January's blow-off top; the fund's only short of the past two to three months is metals and miners, and he sees more downside, with SLV near 48 and GLD near 353 as potential bottom zones.
• He keeps a longer-term bull market thesis for the metals complex if those levels hold, but expects base building to take considerable time and says a retracement deeper than about 61% of the prior rally would invalidate the setup.
• On copper he is comparatively constructive: CPER held up much better than gold and silver, and he would be more comfortable aggressively buying dips in copper, though he still expects short-term downside digestion first.
• His equity models remain bullish and he is keeping a large long allocation, pointing to leadership rotating from growth into healthcare, biotech, financials, industrials, real estate and strong small caps as a sign of a healthy market.
• He has flipped oil and energy to a sell-the-rip mode after the week's bounce stalled at the 200-day moving average, trimming energy exposure into bounces while still liking the sector longer term.

Dana Lyons expects the metals downtrend to extend, targeting the silver ETF near 48 and the gold ETF near 353 before buying. Gold miners broke support near 77, opening a slide toward 65 where Lyons would cover shorts; copper charts look sturdier. Lyons says lithium and rare earth ETFs retraced less than precious metals and sit near bottoming zones around 68-70 and 80-81. Marc Chandler argues the dollar's May rally has peaked, with an expected soft US inflation print likely pulling rates and the dollar lower. Chandler ties central banks' shift from dollars into gold and the RMB to the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves; private capital still drives the dollar.

Dana Lyons– Capital Rotation In The US Equity Markets, Commodities, Bitcoin, & International Markets

Lyons sees capital rotating away from mega-cap technology stocks into equal-weight indexes, small-caps, and commodity sectors as broad market participation improves. Energy and oil services ETFs show strong relative strength, while specific precious metals equities present selective buying opportunities in gold and silver miners. Copper, rare earths, and lithium ETFs reveal diverging commodity trends, with emerging market equities in South Korea and Taiwan signaling potential upside breakout.

Doc and Dana Lyons - A Word Of Caution For PM Investors: Technical Outlooks

• Top takeaway Lyons says the late-January blow-off top in gold broke his low-400s line in the sand on GLD, opening downside toward roughly 350, where he would look to buy; rallies back to the low 400s are for selling or hedging.
• He is short silver and would add to the short on any bounce toward 60-61 on SLV, saying the precious metals complex requires selling rips while the intermediate trend is down.
• In equities, his models remain long: the broad market is holding up far better than the extended AI/chip momentum trade, with breadth, small caps and equal-weight indices resilient through the correction.
• On long-term valuations, he warns background indicators (valuation, fund flows, household equity allocation) are at levels historically followed by roughly flat to negative 10-year stock returns, making this a terrible time for a 10-year horizon even if further near-term gains come first.
• He is bearish crypto — out of his position and selling rips in Ethereum near 2,000 and Bitcoin bounces into the low 70,000s, with a possible significant bottom scenario only in the upper 50,000s.

Technician Richard Postma argues gold has entered a cyclical bear market within an intact secular bull, with a potential low near $3,500-$3,700. He expects a multi-year consolidation, targeting silver at $50-$60, and plans to accumulate low-P/E, high-cash-flow producers once charts bottom. Fund manager Dana Lyons says precious metals and miners are sell-the-rip markets, flagging GLD near $350 and resistance in GDX and SIL. Lyons sees the broad equity market holding up far better than stretched AI and momentum stocks, with small caps and market breadth still healthy. Copper and energy charts remain constructive, uranium equities look weak, and long-term equity valuation indicators warn of poor 10-year returns.

Dana Lyons & RK Equity - Chart Breakouts vs. Geopolitical Chokepoints: Metals & Critical Minerals

Dana Lyons highlights critical support and resistance levels for gold and copper miners, while analyzing broader market breadth and tech momentum. RK Equity partners expose Middle East conflict-induced sulfur shortages that are severely disrupting downstream nickel and cobalt processing. Discussion covers heavy rare earth demand trends, domestic lithium production feasibility, and potential government-backed price floors for minerals.

Brien Lundin & Dana Lyons - Metals Rebound & Market Momentum: Is the Recent Metals Correction Over?

Precious metals and mining equities are rebounding, driven by potential geopolitical resolutions in the Middle East that could spark a broader sector rally. High metal prices are creating significant profitability for smaller-scale projects, presenting major upside opportunities in undervalued junior miners. Technical analysis indicates gold and silver are range-bound, while copper, oil services, and small-cap equities show strong potential for continued growth.

Dana Lyons - Technical Outlook on Software, Semis, and the Metals Complex

Dana Lyons analyzes the recent V-shaped market recovery, attributing the price thrust primarily to extreme bearish positioning and institutional short covering. Software ETF (IGV) is highlighted as presenting a unique contrarian technical entry point, diverging from traditional relative strength models. Precious metals face a challenging short-term environment, while increased participation from mid-caps and the Russell 2000 is critical for sustained rally.

Dana Lyons & Dan Steffens - Was This Week A Top In Gold & Silver? Is The Play Now Oil and Nat Gas?

• Top takeaway Lyons argues the precious metals rally may be topping near-term after Monday's reversal, when silver's SLV ETF traded 10x its normal daily volume and hit his Fib extension target near $109 — what he calls a panic event.
• He differentiates the rally as sustainable in gold (volume only ~40% above the prior 5-year average) versus more mania-like in palladium, platinum, and silver, where 2026 volume jumps ranged from several hundred to roughly 900%.
• Lyons has been trimming on Fibonacci and prior all-time-high levels, taking profits on eight of nine metals and miners positions this week while still holding his copper exposure.
• He observes a notable disconnect since December 2025 between gold and silver prices hitting record highs and mining equities (GDJ, SILJ) selling off the same day.
• Lyons remains constructive on US equities broadly, citing equal-weight S&P and small-cap pure value (RZV) breakouts that support his relative-strength model staying bullish.

Silver volume surged 1000% on a reversal day — Dana Lyons flags that as a classic blow-off warning near a short-term top. Dan Steffens sees a structural natural-gas bull case from winter freeze-offs, deep storage deficits, and rising LNG export demand. Dividend-paying Canadian energy producers offering 6-8% yields are Steffens' preferred way to play an oil tape stuck near $60. Junior miners lagging metals price action is a rotation risk worth watching if precious-metals momentum fades. Permian gas growth is throttled by pipeline takeaway, keeping Gulf Coast-focused gas producers best-positioned for 2026.

Dana Lyons - Riding Silver’s Parabolic Move & Navigating a Broad Market Rally

• Top takeaway The guest argues silver's parabolic move — up roughly 32% YTD as of mid-January 2026, from about $50 in late November 2025 to nearly $100 — is not yet over despite blow-off characteristics; he cites shallow pullbacks and a continued bid, while taking partial profits at key extension levels (SLV around $72, SILJ at 32-33, SIL testing 2011 highs near the mid-90s) rather than exiting fully.
• The guest sees the broadening equity rally as the more durable setup — equal-weight S&P 500 and small-cap value (RZV) broke out in late 2025 / early 2026 while cap-weighted S&P moved sideways, and his main risk model now signals several more months of upside with any major top 'several months down the road' (with late spring 2026 flagged as a possible exhaustion window via the presidential cycle).
• The guest argues an objective entry/exit system is essential to avoid emotional decisions both when an asset is up threefold and when it is down 40-80%; he credits this discipline for being comfortably long metals for close to two years and for sidestepping the urge to chase silver's last 30-35 points higher.
• The guest holds positions across the precious metals complex (gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium added at the early-January 2026 pullback), sees lithium, tin, and nickel also moving, but holds no oil or oil-equity exposure outside a small MLP — with XLE on watch as a potential modified cup-and-handle breakout.
• The guest calls the bounce in Bitcoin from about $80,000 to the mid-$90,000s 'dead cat-ish' or bear-flag-like, holds no position in Bitcoin or Ethereum, and would exit a long Bitcoin in the low $100,000s and Ethereum near $3,500-3,600 while waiting for a more constructive setup.

Dana Lyons argues disciplined, rules-based systems protect investors when silver, gold, and copper push into parabolic territory. Dana took partial profits on silver miners at the 161% Fibonacci extension from the 2011 bear-market low — not an exit signal, but risk management. Shallow pullbacks and steady higher highs in silver miners suggest the metal rally has more room, even as silver itself looks bubble-like. Broadening leadership across equal-weight S&P 500, small-cap value, and international markets underpins Dana's bullish two-to-six-month outlook. Dana sees Bitcoin's rebound to $95,000 as a bear-flag dead-cat bounce and holds no position in either Bitcoin or Ethereum.