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Dana Lyons & Marc Chandler - Metals Seasonality Vs Technicals, US Dollar Strength Vs Diversification

The KE Report Jul 11, 2026

Summary

Dana Lyons expects the metals downtrend to extend, targeting the silver ETF near 48 and the gold ETF near 353 before buying.

Gold miners broke support near 77, opening a slide toward 65 where Lyons would cover shorts; copper charts look sturdier.

Lyons says lithium and rare earth ETFs retraced less than precious metals and sit near bottoming zones around 68-70 and 80-81.

Marc Chandler argues the dollar's May rally has peaked, with an expected soft US inflation print likely pulling rates and the dollar lower.

Chandler ties central banks' shift from dollars into gold and the RMB to the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves; private capital still drives the dollar.

Marc Chandler's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Chandler argues the dollar's leg up since early May has peaked: on the July 10, 2026 recording the dollar index looked set to settle below its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-May, with the 5-day average about to cross below the 20-day, the first such turn since the rally began.
  • He says a fundamental driver of a weaker dollar could come the following Tuesday, when US CPI is expected to show the first headline inflation decline since the Iran war began; he still thinks one Fed hike this year is prudent (9 of 18 June dot plots showed at least one) but expects softer data to shave the roughly 36 basis points of hikes priced in.
  • He traces central banks' shrinking dollar reserves to the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves, calls the weaponization of reserves a Rubicon that pushed countries to de-risk, and cites an OMFIF survey in which most central banks expect to raise gold and cut dollar holdings, while stressing they move at glacial speeds and that private-sector capital flows, not reserves, drive the dollar.
  • He sees China stepping into the vacuum as the US steps back: the PBoC set its dollar reference rate below 6.8 for the first time in three years, record Panda bond issuance is letting borrowers swap dollar debt for cheaper RMB debt, and the Australian dollar has been the strongest G10 currency this year with a hawkish central bank that has hiked three times.
  • On gold, he points out it has bled lower from its late-January peak near $5,600 an ounce to about $3,945 by end-June despite central-bank buying by China, Poland and Central Asian banks, so the reserve shift has not been supporting the price.

Dana Lyons's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Lyons says precious metals are still in a short-term downtrend after January's blow-off top; the fund's only short of the past two to three months is metals and miners, and he sees more downside, with SLV near 48 and GLD near 353 as potential bottom zones.
  • He keeps a longer-term bull market thesis for the metals complex if those levels hold, but expects base building to take considerable time and says a retracement deeper than about 61% of the prior rally would invalidate the setup.
  • On copper he is comparatively constructive: CPER held up much better than gold and silver, and he would be more comfortable aggressively buying dips in copper, though he still expects short-term downside digestion first.
  • His equity models remain bullish and he is keeping a large long allocation, pointing to leadership rotating from growth into healthcare, biotech, financials, industrials, real estate and strong small caps as a sign of a healthy market.
  • He has flipped oil and energy to a sell-the-rip mode after the week's bounce stalled at the 200-day moving average, trimming energy exposure into bounces while still liking the sector longer term.