Dana Lyons - Broad Commodity Trends, Gold & Silver Downside Levels, and Historic S&P Divergence

Summary

The guest's models keep a long-term commodity bull market in play, treating the recent two-week pullback as a chance to add.

Copper's technical structure remains bullish on successive higher lows; he stays long the metal and adds on weakness.

Still bullish long-term on precious metals, he is hedged near-term, with silver's SLV ETF flagged for a 10-15% drop toward the upper $40s.

Equal-weight S&P weakness of over 5% in September 2026 against a nearly flat index marks its worst divergence on record.

He expects election-driven volatility through October, a month that produces both the most crashes and the most market bottoms.

Dana Lyons's takeaways

Top takeaway His top call is caution on US equities: he notes the cap-weighted S&P 500 fell less than half a percent in September while the equal-weight RSP fell more than 5%, which he calls the worst monthly divergence in that index's history, and he sees significant near- to intermediate-term risk even though he does not think the final long-term top is in.

He says his quantitative risk model detected deteriorating market internals at the end of August and issued a sell signal about a week into September, so he spent late August and early September raising cash and adding hedges.

He remains bullish on commodities longer term, with broad funds such as COM and COMT looking bullish to his models, energy among the more bullish commodity markets, and pullbacks in the last few weeks a level at which he would re-enter longs.

He is bullish on copper, saying every pullback has produced a higher low and the metal is testing all-time highs, and he is maintaining a healthy long position in it with a lesser bullish view on copper miners.

He is hedged and near-term bearish on gold and silver, looking for roughly 10% to 15% more downside in SLV toward the upper 40s and for GLD to approach 350, while still staying in the long-term precious-metals bull camp.