Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth: I’d Buy Gold on the Next Big Drop

• Top takeaway She expects gold to run higher from what she sees as a floor after the recent sell-off, and says she would treat a broad risk-asset correction that drags gold down as a buying opportunity.
• She argues core inflation is falling and will keep falling as stretched households cut discretionary spending, which makes Fed officials look out of step with what companies see on the ground.
• She expects home-price declines to accelerate as sidelined sellers add to heavy supply with mortgage rates pushing toward 7.5% as of late September 2026, and says prices remain far from affordable.
• She argues the low unemployment rate is flattered by a labor force shrinking since November 2025, and that consistently downward-revised payroll reports should not be taken at face value.
• She advises investors to insist on dividend-paying stocks while equities are as overvalued as she judges them to be, so they still get paid through a correction.

Decades-high Treasury yields (the government's borrowing costs) are squeezing households, corporations, and the federal budget at once. Danielle DiMartino Booth argues core inflation (prices excluding food and energy) keeps falling because paychecks cannot stretch further. She calls the Fed's recent rate hike a blunt tool that cannot fix supply-driven inflation and mainly destroys demand. Housing faces more downside: frozen sales, falling rents, and sticky property taxes point to a multi-year price unwind. On gold she sees a floor forming, would treat a broad selloff as a buying opportunity, and notes central banks keep accumulating.

Bankruptcy Data Is Sending a Warning

• Top takeaway Argues small business bankruptcies were up 50% year over year as of June 2026, a number she calls incredible, and treats the bankruptcy surge as a warning sign for the economy.
• Cites fresh data showing household bankruptcies up 12% year over year, saying financial stress is now hitting households as well as businesses.
• Points to roughly half of adults aged 30 and younger living with their parents, which she says is not a normal state for a dynamic, regenerative economy.
• Argues this trend is slowing household formation and filtering through into the elevated bankruptcy levels she sees across small businesses and households.

About half of adults aged 30 and younger live with their parents, a pattern DiMartino Booth calls abnormal for a dynamic, regenerative economy. She argues the trend is slowing household formation and now filtering through into rising bankruptcies. Fresh data shows household bankruptcies up 12 percent year over year, and small business bankruptcies up 50 percent as of June. She reads these figures as a warning that households and small businesses are under mounting financial pressure.

The Recession Signal Hidden in Job Data

• Top takeaway She argues the US had net job losses in the first, second and third quarters of 2025 — three consecutive losing quarters, which she calls the definition of a recession.
• She says payroll numbers are only as good as "the echo of their third revision", citing the Fed chair, so investors should discount the first print of any jobs report.
• She points to the quarterly census of employment and wages as the more complete measure: she says every US employer is obliged to report headcount to the Census Bureau and that this covers more than 95% of US employers.
• She notes the census headcount figure is not checked against payroll figures for 18 months, leaving investors with a delayed view of labour-market weakness.

Danielle DiMartino Booth: “America Is Already In A Recession”

• Top takeaway The guest argues the U.S. is already in a recession: after revisions, payrolls showed net job losses across the first three quarters of 2025, which she calls the definition of recession, and she questions why officials will not acknowledge it.
• She sees consumers as out of runway as of mid-2026 — one in five Americans has a car payment above $1,000 a month, the personal saving rate is about 3%, and household bankruptcies were up 12% year over year — so she expects spending to struggle in the second half of the year.
• She calls gold's long consolidation and sell-off a very interesting entry point, arguing 'tourist' money has been flushed out and a definitive floor is forming, and says cracking credit markets would be good for gold.
• She doubts the AI capital-spending boom is sustainable, citing circular financing, earnings dependent on private-market valuations of AI holdings, cheaper Chinese AI technology, and an underlying economy ex-AI doing little (Atlanta Fed Q2 2026 GDP tracking at 1.3%).
• On policy, she finds Kevin Warsh's early Fed leadership encouraging — less FedSpeak and a near-singular focus on price stability — but does not think the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike, with hike pricing pushed out to December 2026.

The guest argues America is already in recession, with payrolls revised down in 30 of the last 40 months and 2025 showing net job losses. Labor force participation fell to 61.5 percent, the lowest since 1976 outside COVID, as 720,000 Americans gave up job searches in one month. Consumer stress builds: household bankruptcies up 12 percent, small-business filings 50 percent, and American car payments sit at record levels. Booth sees gold's long consolidation flushing out 'tourist' money and creating a definitive floor, an attractive entry point if credit cracks. AI capex may not last: circular financing, valuation-dependent earnings and cheaper Chinese technology all question the sustainability of the investment boom.

Why The Shadow Banking System Could Trigger The Next Major Crisis

• Top takeaway Rates her concern about private markets at 7-8 out of 10 as of the July 2026 interview, citing a public-company bankruptcy cycle running about 40% higher year over year and arguing private-world insolvencies are higher still.
• Argues the systemic risk is bigger than private credit itself: the shadow banking system holds about $258 trillion, 51-52% of global financial assets as of end-2024, larger than conventional banks, fed by lending from regulated banks into non-depository institutions.
• Contends public companies are valuing private holdings at questionable levels, so as much as 50% of the Magnificent Seven's earnings rests on value marks that should be one-time accounting items but recur, making the 'E' in the P/E ratio suspect.
• Points to a record $251 billion of equity sold in the first half of 2026, breaking all prior records, as casting light on private equity, which she says sponsors the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, as the bigger concern.
• Rejects the idea that fading headlines mean the private credit problem is resolved; in her view the market has entered an 'acceptance phase of grief,' accepting the assets are worthless and moving on rather than fixing anything.

Private equity, not just private credit, may anchor shadow-banking risk: Danielle DiMartino Booth argues sponsor valuations look as questionable as the loans they back. Public companies marking private holdings aggressively can inflate reported earnings, putting a feedback loop behind the E in P/E ratios. Non-bank lenders hold about $258 trillion — 51% of global financial assets — a shadow system now larger than regulated banking. With bankruptcies up roughly 40% year over year and rates still elevated, the guest rates private-market concern 7-8 out of 10.

Top Of The K-Shaped Economy Starting To Crack? | Danielle DiMartino Booth

• Top takeaway She argues hard QCEW data show net job losses in each of the first three quarters of 2025 and about 600,000 full-time jobs lost over the last 12 months, so much of 2025 was a recession for many consumers.
• She argues the top of the K is starting to crack: top earners' confidence is falling the fastest in the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys, and Carnival's revenue miss plus seniors' record equity exposure put the boomer spending that props up the averages at risk.
• She is tracking corporate bankruptcies running about 40% above year-ago levels, consumer bankruptcies up about 10%, and a July 1 payment shock as all 42 million student loan borrowers exit forbearance.
• She rates private markets 7 or 8 out of 10 on her concern meter, citing a shadow banking system at 51-52% of global assets (about $258 trillion at end-2024) and unknowable valuations there that may also sit behind roughly half of Mag-7 earnings.
• Her calls: negative headline CPI prints are coming so the market's expected rate hike is wrong, she has stepped back into gold, likes locking in 4.1% on two-year Treasuries, and urges investors to harvest gains so they never have to say they lost money.

Guest cites QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — employers' actual headcount) data: about 600,000 full-time US jobs lost in 12 months. Corporate bankruptcies run about 40% above year-ago levels and consumer filings 10% higher, while 42 million student-loan borrowers face repayment again. Top earners' consumer confidence is falling fastest, threatening the strong arm of the K-shaped economy that props up the averages. The guest rates private credit a 7-8 out of 10 concern: shadow banks hold $258 trillion, about 51% of global financial assets. Gold's shakeout looks complete to her; she favors re-entering precious metals and locking in roughly 4.1% on two-year Treasuries as defense.

Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.