The Recession Signal Hidden in Job Data

Danielle DiMartino Booth's takeaways

• Top takeaway She argues the US had net job losses in the first, second and third quarters of 2025 — three consecutive losing quarters, which she calls the definition of a recession.
• She says payroll numbers are only as good as "the echo of their third revision", citing the Fed chair, so investors should discount the first print of any jobs report.
• She points to the quarterly census of employment and wages as the more complete measure: she says every US employer is obliged to report headcount to the Census Bureau and that this covers more than 95% of US employers.
• She notes the census headcount figure is not checked against payroll figures for 18 months, leaving investors with a delayed view of labour-market weakness.