David Rosenberg

Knock-On Effects Could Make This Worse Than The Dot-Com Bust | David Rosenberg

• Top takeaway Rosenberg argues the bubble is in investor psychology and expectations, not in the technology itself, and warns that knock-on effects of an AI-trade unwind could be worse than the dot-com bust because nearly every sector is now correlated with that one trade.
• Rosenberg says the equity market is in 'extra innings' — with a CAPE near 40 and a negative equity risk premium — and that rising real interest rates will compress P/E multiples even if earnings hold up.
• Rosenberg flags housing as the ignored risk: the Fed Beige Book commentary on housing is poor, mortgage rates are backing up, and housing has powerful multiplier effects on the economy (as it did in 2007–2009).
• Rosenberg is bullish on commodities and hard assets — oil, pipelines, energy infrastructure, rare earths, and gold/silver miners — citing expected multi-year supply-demand deficits in basic materials.
• Rosenberg prefers non-US equities (Japan, Europe, India, Brazil, and emerging markets ex-Taiwan/Korea) over the S&P 500, and favors duration in 10-year and 2-year notes given a roughly 2.5% real yield on the 10-year.

Today's market setup could inflict more damage than the dot-com bust, because nearly every sector now correlates with one AI trade. Two fragile pillars prop up growth: AI data center capex and an equity wealth effect that has pushed the personal savings rate sharply lower. Rising real interest rates will likely compress equity multiples well before any earnings disappointment, Rosenberg argues. Bond yields may fall on a November 4 Treasury refunding shift, despite the hawkish turn from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Rosenberg's new ROSY ETF launches September 9 on the TSX via Corton Capital, anchored in commodities, healthcare, and global equities.

"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg

Economist David Rosenberg warns of significant economic fragility, arguing that current GDP growth is unsustainable and heavily dependent on a declining savings rate and the stock market wealth effect. The US economy exhibits a dangerous K-shaped divergence, where lower-income households face severe financial stress through rising delinquency rates and increasing reliance on credit for basic survival. Geopolitical risks, including the new conflict with Iran, combined with an overvalued stock market, pose substantial downside threats to the 2026 economic outlook and corporate earnings.

60% SILVER PULLBACK?

• Top takeaway Argues a near-term correction in gold — and a sharper one in silver — is overdue even though the secular bull is intact; he originally called a $6,000 peak for gold back when it was near $2,000 and started trimming exposure at $4,500 in both gold and the miners, but says prices have now deviated so far from their moving averages that the next move is a 'very big pullback'
• Proposes a spread trade for the correction — long the miners and short the underlying commodity — because the commodity itself will fall further than the stocks during the unwind
• Recommends investors parking profits rotate into the Japanese yen (fair value 120-130 vs. ~154 with 20-30% upside) and the Australian dollar (RBA likely to begin raising rates within two months); is explicitly bearish on the Canadian dollar, citing years of trade frictions with the US and Bank of Canada rate cuts
• Warns the S&P 500 is in 'extra innings' with the CAPE pressing 40 and a 2.5% earnings yield sitting below the 2.65% 30-year TIPS yield — a rare negative equity risk premium he calls 'incredulous' — and argues only healthcare, REITs, and consumer staples in the S&P 100 are uncorrelated with the AI trade
• Closes on capital preservation and preservation of cash flow, citing REITs as attractively valued for income, and says 'nobody ever got hurt taking profits' — though he notes the fundamental gold peak is not yet in

A near-term 30-40% gold pullback and a 40-60% silver pullback is likely after their parabolic run. Long miners paired with short commodity positions can outperform during corrections because miners fall less. When the Shiller PE exceeds the 30-year TIPS yield, equities effectively carry zero risk premium versus bonds. Profits taken out of metals should rotate into the Japanese yen and Australian dollar rather than cash. Silver is asymptotic rather than parabolic versus gold because it historically moves through supply squeezes.