60% SILVER PULLBACK?

VRIC Media Feb 15, 2026

Summary

A near-term 30-40% gold pullback and a 40-60% silver pullback is likely after their parabolic run.

Long miners paired with short commodity positions can outperform during corrections because miners fall less.

When the Shiller PE exceeds the 30-year TIPS yield, equities effectively carry zero risk premium versus bonds.

Profits taken out of metals should rotate into the Japanese yen and Australian dollar rather than cash.

Silver is asymptotic rather than parabolic versus gold because it historically moves through supply squeezes.

Top takeaway Argues a near-term correction in gold — and a sharper one in silver — is overdue even though the secular bull is intact; he originally called a $6,000 peak for gold back when it was near $2,000 and started trimming exposure at $4,500 in both gold and the miners, but says prices have now deviated so far from their moving averages that the next move is a 'very big pullback'
Proposes a spread trade for the correction — long the miners and short the underlying commodity — because the commodity itself will fall further than the stocks during the unwind
Recommends investors parking profits rotate into the Japanese yen (fair value 120-130 vs. ~154 with 20-30% upside) and the Australian dollar (RBA likely to begin raising rates within two months); is explicitly bearish on the Canadian dollar, citing years of trade frictions with the US and Bank of Canada rate cuts
Warns the S&P 500 is in 'extra innings' with the CAPE pressing 40 and a 2.5% earnings yield sitting below the 2.65% 30-year TIPS yield — a rare negative equity risk premium he calls 'incredulous' — and argues only healthcare, REITs, and consumer staples in the S&P 100 are uncorrelated with the AI trade
Closes on capital preservation and preservation of cash flow, citing REITs as attractively valued for income, and says 'nobody ever got hurt taking profits' — though he notes the fundamental gold peak is not yet in

Top takeaway Argues that once gold tops, it could pull back 30-40% and silver 40-60%, describing silver's monthly chart (going back to the 1970s) as a 'scary-looking' pattern of straight-up, straight-down moves
Forecasts a sizable equity correction in which the Magnificent Seven drop 20-30%, similar to the tariff crash, potentially tipping into a broader sell-off — with capital fleeing into precious metals for one final euphoric push before reversing
Already liquidated about 5% of his portfolio out of gold at the $5,100-$5,200 technical-resistance zone; sees that level as the trigger for a possible blow-off toward $6,000, but says the discipline is to follow price and exit when the trend ends rather than try to pick the top
Disfavors hedging (says it usually costs money and invites human error); prefers stepping aside into cash and sees 15-17% upside in the US dollar if the economy weakens, while noting cash itself is a position many investors underestimate
Views the broader precious-metals complex as largely played out and says he is rotating out; singles out platinum as having a constructive recent breakout pattern