Greg Weldon

Greg Weldon of The Global-Macro Strategy Report Shares His Latest Financial Markets Outlooks

• Top takeaway Weldon argues the dollar is on the verge of breaking down through the uptrend line off its 2008/2011 double-bottom low, a structural move he says has long-term secular bearish meaning for the dollar, with central banks now owning more gold than treasuries.
• Weldon says he went publicly bullish on gold again in the first week of August 2026: he sees a textbook ABC correction completed in gold and silver, and expects the next, bigger leg up to be driven by dollar depreciation as US wealth managers and individuals move out of paper dollars into precious metals, after central-bank buying drove the first move to about $5,000.
• Weldon argues the Fed will be forced to acquiesce to higher inflation to protect underlying consumer demand, because without growth the $40 trillion US debt cannot be serviced, and he says this is what is really bullish for gold.
• Weldon cites July's record $316 billion of borrowing from the public and the deepest non-pandemic monthly budget deficit in US history as evidence that talk of fiscal consolidation is not credible, and as added weight on the dollar.
• Weldon argues El Nino, which NOAA's April 9 alert gave a one-in-four chance of being the worst on record, is already lifting cocoa, sugar, coffee, and grain prices and has ended the food-price disinflation, making the Fed's job harder while the agricultural ETF DBA sits close to a multi-year high breakout.

Weldon argues the dollar sits on the verge of breaking its 2008-2011 double bottom, a structural breakdown already showing up in rallying commodities. July set the deepest non-pandemic monthly deficit in US history with $316 billion borrowed from the public, pressuring the dollar and the Fed. El Nino (Pacific warming that disrupts weather) is damaging crops from cocoa to coffee, reviving food inflation just as the Fed needs calm prices. With $40 trillion of debt to service, central bankers will choose reflation over deflation, the guest argues, his reason for turning bullish on gold. Gold's first leg rode central-bank buying; the bigger next leg, he says, is US investors rotating out of paper dollars into precious metals.

World War For Resources Has Started | Greg Weldon

• Top takeaway Weldon frames the precious-metals rally as a three-phase move — China dumping US Treasuries and taking physical gold, mid-year outperformance of the major gold miners, and a just-starting US-dollar decline — and argues that if the dollar is beginning a secular decline, gold will pull back in an ABC correction that becomes the next buy point.
• He pegs the $4,000–$4,500 zone (around $4,465 and $3,990) as the key Fibonacci/psychological buy area for gold, argues against averaging down, and says he would only step in at those predefined levels.
• On silver, Weldon treats the $71–$74 zone as critical support — a 50% retracement and round-number psychological level — with $62 and $54 as deeper supports he does not expect to break, and calls mid-$60s a back-the-truck-up accumulation moment.
• He argues silver's fourth consecutive supply/demand deficit, its new strategic-metal status in the US and China, and the dollar-debasement trade mean sub-$30 prices are extremely unlikely long term, with $50–$54 the realistic floor.
• On equities, Weldon says the S&P infotech complex lost momentum in mid-December, consumer health looks like 2008 or 2020 on revolving-credit deflation and credit-card delinquencies, and retail/infotech indicators suggest ~30% downside in the S&P — though he still expects stocks higher over the long term as the dollar falls.

The guest frames gold's run as China dumping US treasuries and de-dollarizing reserves rather than inflation expectations. He tags the $4,000-$4,500 zone as gold's next major buy area and $62-$74 as the key silver support band. He calls the US dollar's secular decline 'just beginning,' arguing a weaker dollar extends the precious metals bull market. The guest warns of a US equity selloff, noting revolving credit has only declined year-over-year before two prior recessions. He flags AI-driven labor displacement as a new risk to US consumer health and corporate earnings.