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Greg Weldon of The Global-Macro Strategy Report Shares His Latest Financial Markets Outlooks

Peter Grandich Aug 24, 2026

Summary

Weldon argues the dollar sits on the verge of breaking its 2008-2011 double bottom, a structural breakdown already showing up in rallying commodities.

July set the deepest non-pandemic monthly deficit in US history with $316 billion borrowed from the public, pressuring the dollar and the Fed.

El Nino (Pacific warming that disrupts weather) is damaging crops from cocoa to coffee, reviving food inflation just as the Fed needs calm prices.

With $40 trillion of debt to service, central bankers will choose reflation over deflation, the guest argues, his reason for turning bullish on gold.

Gold's first leg rode central-bank buying; the bigger next leg, he says, is US investors rotating out of paper dollars into precious metals.

Greg Weldon's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Weldon argues the dollar is on the verge of breaking down through the uptrend line off its 2008/2011 double-bottom low, a structural move he says has long-term secular bearish meaning for the dollar, with central banks now owning more gold than treasuries.
  • Weldon says he went publicly bullish on gold again in the first week of August 2026: he sees a textbook ABC correction completed in gold and silver, and expects the next, bigger leg up to be driven by dollar depreciation as US wealth managers and individuals move out of paper dollars into precious metals, after central-bank buying drove the first move to about $5,000.
  • Weldon argues the Fed will be forced to acquiesce to higher inflation to protect underlying consumer demand, because without growth the $40 trillion US debt cannot be serviced, and he says this is what is really bullish for gold.
  • Weldon cites July's record $316 billion of borrowing from the public and the deepest non-pandemic monthly budget deficit in US history as evidence that talk of fiscal consolidation is not credible, and as added weight on the dollar.
  • Weldon argues El Nino, which NOAA's April 9 alert gave a one-in-four chance of being the worst on record, is already lifting cocoa, sugar, coffee, and grain prices and has ended the food-price disinflation, making the Fed's job harder while the agricultural ETF DBA sits close to a multi-year high breakout.

Peter Grandich's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Grandich says he told clients and posted on X that, going forward from here, investors should de-emphasize financial assets and emphasize commodities, including metals, energy, and agricultural.
  • Grandich argues US farmers, who voted overwhelmingly for Trump, are now worse off because of the weather and war-driven fertilizer prices, creating political vulnerability for the administration in farm states like Iowa ahead of upcoming elections.
  • Grandich presses that the bond market matters more to the economy than the stock market, and asks Weldon whether a move through 5% on the 10-year yield could let all hell break loose.
  • Grandich warns that the typical licensed US financial advisor has never experienced a bear market, which is why he recommends his clientele read Weldon's work for a more seasoned, balanced perspective.