Jeff Christian

Jeff Christian - Gold Price Drivers: Politics vs Economic Data vs Rates

Jeff Christian: Gold Can Hit $5,000 Before Year-End

• Top takeaway As of mid-September 2026, Christian forecasts gold could reach $4,800 to $5,000 by year-end, driven by the US midterms, the ongoing Iran-US war, and a possible sharp decline in US stocks as investors back away from the AI speculative bubble, with buying as broad-based as in late 2025 and January 2026.
• He argues rising rates are not inherently bearish for gold: the measured correlation is near zero (about negative 16% on an inflation-adjusted basis), rates rising on recession, inflation, and deficit fears are good for gold, and only real rates above 3% (implying T-bills near 6.4% with 3.4% inflation) would pull investors away from the metal.
• He says the AI and data-center buildout has been a headwind that diverted capital from precious metals, accounting for roughly 40% of the S&P 500's rise and about 30% of first-half US GDP growth, but could become a strong tailwind within 12 months if the speculative bubble deflates.
• His firm sent clients two butterfly call spreads ahead of the November midterms, modeled on its October 2016 election trade that reportedly returned 125% in a month, on the view that gold can spike sharply regardless of which side wins.
• He rejects extreme calls like $40,000 gold, arguing gold remains a physical commodity: if the price returns to $5,000, investors who paid less than $1,000 on average could sell even 1% of the roughly 2 billion investor-owned ounces, adding about 20% to annual supply and pressuring the price.

Gold's slide from $4,600 to $4,300 reflects rate-hike expectations and profit-taking, not a break in the bull market, Christian argues. The raw correlation between interest rates and gold is near zero; why rates are rising matters more than the rise itself. CPM Group targets $4,800-$5,000 gold by year-end, driven by US midterms, the Iran war and a possible AI-trade unwind. Investment flows set gold's price short term, but mine supply, scrap recovery and jewellery demand cap how far a squeeze runs. Core CPI excluding food and energy at 2.4% in August signals underlying disinflation and growing recession risk, per Christian.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Gold And Energy: Central Bank Buying & Undervalued Energy Stocks

• Top takeaway Christian argues central banks were net buyers of about 2.9 million ounces through June 2026 (7.8 million gross), with Poland, China, and Uzbekistan accounting for most demand, and reverses the usual causal story by saying gold prices drive central bank activity rather than the reverse.
• Christian frames the current gold bull market as 7 years in (since 2019) and says it is moving from mid to late stage, with a possible cyclical peak in the next one to two years even though the macro backdrop remains supportive.
• He warns that new US stablecoin legislation lets operators sever the link between stablecoins and underlying gold or Treasury holdings at their discretion, and says self-audited gold bars held by some of the largest stablecoin issuers are reminiscent of the late-1970s/early-1980s precious-metals frauds.
• On silver, Christian argues industrial demand outside solar has been declining for 25 years, that solar silver use may be off 8-10% in 2026 after peaking in 2025, and that AI-driven silver and copper demand could unwind like the 1998-2000 internet bubble and the 2006-2009 CMO/CDS bubble.

Gold bull market is moving from mid to late stage; further upside is likely but a cyclical peak may arrive within one to two years. Central bank gold buying follows price rather than driving it - central banks are price-sensitive and buy more when gold dips. US stablecoin regulation allows operators to sever the token-to-asset link, plus self-audited gold holdings - a red flag for tokenized metal. Solar has driven silver fabrication demand growth for a quarter century but that pillar may have peaked in 2025 with an 8-10% drop ahead. Canadian energy juniors trade under two-times cash flow; oil likely stays in $75-90 range until November midterms with LNG arbitrage wide open.

Jeff Christian & Dan Steffens - PGM Market Overview, In Depth Oil Commentary

• Top takeaway The guest says platinum's record run, from around $900 in May 2025 to a record near $2,900 in January 2026, was investor-driven, rejecting the promotional claims of a massive deficit and a China import surge; he notes the price had given back about half, to roughly $1,600, by the July 25, 2026 recording.
• He expects platinum and palladium to have upside over the next three to five years but to come back off beyond roughly 2030 to 2032, and prefers them to the minor metals because exchange trading gives investors visible prices and a way to exit.
• He does not expect platinum to regain its historical premium to gold, arguing gold's rise reflects a lasting shift in who is able to own it while platinum is an industrial metal that has already lost about 13% of its vehicle market to battery electric vehicles.
• He describes palladium as a very tight, roughly balanced industrial market, with a small surplus in the prior year and a small deficit this year, but warns it carries the same auto-catalyst vulnerability as platinum.
• He dismisses fuel-cell and green-hydrogen demand stories for platinum and iridium as repeated false starts, noting about 58 gigawatts of announced electrolyser electrode capacity against roughly 5 gigawatts of actual capacity.

Christian argues platinum's run to a $2,900 January record came from investors chasing a deficit story, not from autocatalyst demand. PGMs (platinum group metals — six noble metals clustered on the periodic table) are industrial metals, losing share as battery electric vehicles replace catalyst demand. Fuel cell and hydrogen forecasts keep underdelivering, while opaque minor PGMs like iridium and ruthenium offer price upside with almost no way to exit. Steffens expects the real oil supply shock in August as US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns stall and crack spreads, the crude-to-product margin, hit extremes. Energy producers at $80-plus return cash through dividends and buybacks rather than adding rigs, and Magnolia's $4 billion deal signals renewed M&A appetite.

Weekend Show - Jeff Christian & Dan Steffens - A New Reality for Asset Prices?

Jeff Christian argues that structural investment demand is driving a long-term upward revaluation of gold and silver, with higher average prices expected despite near-term corrections. Christian sees silver's price driven by both industrial demand and growing investment interest, while platinum and palladium face more nuanced supply-demand dynamics. Dan Steffens highlights declining global oil inventories and points to strong dividend yields and growth potential in upstream oil and gas producers.

Jeff Christian - Gold, Silver, Platinum: Price Rebounds & Market Outlook

Gold and silver are expected to trade sideways in a volatile range through August before a potential price breakout in late Q3. Institutional and retail investors are shifting from futures to precious metals ETFs due to regulatory hurdles and easier market access. Platinum presents a multi-year bull case through 2030, driven by hybrid vehicle demand growth and ongoing supply constraints in South Africa.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Gold, Silver & Oil Outlook: Major Market Turns

Jeff Christian critically analyzes Silver Institute deficit data, arguing investment demand drives prices more than fabricated supply scarcity narratives. Central banks continue strategic gold accumulation with Christian addressing recent activities in Turkey and France while debunking common market myths. Josef Schachter outlines oil price scenarios ranging from $80 stabilization to new highs, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Commodities Deep Dive: Silver Mania and Energy Opportunity

• Top takeaway Jeff's top thesis: investment demand, not mine supply or fabrication demand, is the fundamental that drives precious metals prices, and that is what he anchors his near-term and multi-decade silver/gold outlook to.
• He pushes back on the popular silver-shortage narrative, saying CPM's data shows mine production up ~1% last year, scrap recovery up ~11% to 277M oz, and ample above-ground inventories, with refiners backed up by investor selling rather than stock-outs.
• He says silver is in a bubble akin to 1980 and 2011, places the current precious-metals bull market in roughly the 'seventh inning,' and expects annual-average silver prices to keep rising over the next decade from a $40 base rather than from the current $92 spike.
• He flags a sharp demand-side risk: two of the world's largest solar-panel manufacturers have announced they are switching from silver to copper (one Chinese major transitioning fully by Q2 2026 on existing equipment), which he says could turn silver's biggest industrial growth story into a contraction.
• He expects central banks to keep buying gold as a share of reserves rather than for absolute ounces, so volumes bought will fall as the price rises (7.5M oz last year at ~$3,460 vs. 14.6M oz in 2023 at ~$1,950), reinforcing a price floor tied to geopolitical and de-dollarization concerns.

Silver near $100 is driven by investment demand, not a true supply shortage, says CPM Group's Jeff Christian. Two major solar panel makers are shifting from silver to copper, reshaping silver's industrial demand outlook. Margin requirement hikes on silver futures have not historically ended rallies, Christian argues after reviewing prior cycles. Oil and gas stocks lag the broader commodity complex, but Schachter sees a table-pounding buy if WTI dips below $54. Central banks buy gold as a fixed share of reserves, so rising prices mean fewer ounces purchased at any given level.