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Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Commodities Deep Dive: Silver Mania and Energy Opportunity

The KE Report Jan 24, 2026

Summary

Silver near $100 is driven by investment demand, not a true supply shortage, says CPM Group's Jeff Christian.

Two major solar panel makers are shifting from silver to copper, reshaping silver's industrial demand outlook.

Margin requirement hikes on silver futures have not historically ended rallies, Christian argues after reviewing prior cycles.

Oil and gas stocks lag the broader commodity complex, but Schachter sees a table-pounding buy if WTI dips below $54.

Central banks buy gold as a fixed share of reserves, so rising prices mean fewer ounces purchased at any given level.

Jeff Christian's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Jeff's top thesis: investment demand, not mine supply or fabrication demand, is the fundamental that drives precious metals prices, and that is what he anchors his near-term and multi-decade silver/gold outlook to.
  • He pushes back on the popular silver-shortage narrative, saying CPM's data shows mine production up ~1% last year, scrap recovery up ~11% to 277M oz, and ample above-ground inventories, with refiners backed up by investor selling rather than stock-outs.
  • He says silver is in a bubble akin to 1980 and 2011, places the current precious-metals bull market in roughly the 'seventh inning,' and expects annual-average silver prices to keep rising over the next decade from a $40 base rather than from the current $92 spike.
  • He flags a sharp demand-side risk: two of the world's largest solar-panel manufacturers have announced they are switching from silver to copper (one Chinese major transitioning fully by Q2 2026 on existing equipment), which he says could turn silver's biggest industrial growth story into a contraction.
  • He expects central banks to keep buying gold as a share of reserves rather than for absolute ounces, so volumes bought will fall as the price rises (7.5M oz last year at ~$3,460 vs. 14.6M oz in 2023 at ~$1,950), reinforcing a price floor tied to geopolitical and de-dollarization concerns.

Josef Schachter's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Josef's headline call: he is not opposed to oil pulling back into the $52-$54 range and explicitly says that level would set up a 'table-pounding buy,' with a possible 10-20% drawdown in energy stocks that would mark a high-conviction re-entry.
  • He frames Venezuela as overhyped near-term supply relief because Chevron is the only operator (producing ~260K boe/d, shipping ~130K to the U.S., targeting ~400K), and says scaling Venezuelan production meaningfully (re-piping, secondary recovery, condensate imports) takes years, with material displacement of Canadian heavy crude unlikely before 2028.
  • He is constructive on small/mid-cap, growth-oriented Canadian producers once oil recovers, projecting 50%+ upside from the upcoming low and contrasting that with the larger, dividend-and-hedge-anchored names like Whitecap and Freehold; he specifically cites InPlay Oil as a prior example that doubled off the March/April 2025 low.
  • He expects Canadian heavy-oil differentials (currently $14-$16) to widen toward $20 by 2028 if Venezuelan and other supply builds compete for Gulf Coast takeaway, and points to Premier Danielle Smith pushing for a West-coast pipeline or expanded rail as a response.
  • He highlights today's LNG Canada news that Shell (40%) and Mitsubishi (15%) are weighing sale options on their stakes in the $29B project as a negative signal for Canadian LNG development, since one of the world's biggest LNG players apparently does not see Canada as a great place to invest right now.