Josef Schachter

Weekend Show - Is the Market Topping? Gold’s Next Move? Is Oil About To Pop Higher?

• Top takeaway Josef Schachter argues oil is unlikely to back off because the Iran and Houthi conflict continues, with Iran effectively constraining the Bab el-Mandeb strait and pushing WTI to as high as $106.75 intraday, around $102.50 at recording, and he expects oil to stay above $100 through the November 3 election.
• He flags global OECD days-of-inventory at 82 days, down from 90 before the war, and warns that a breach below 80 days, last seen in Q2 2008 when oil ran from $90 to $147, would warrant more aggressive price forecasts; Schachter's 2027 WTI estimate is $90 versus $80 used for 2026.
• Schachter notes US crude exports rose to 4.8 million barrels a day and that the SPR fell another 400,000 barrels to 285 million, down from 406 million a year earlier, and he argues Venezuela's heavy crude is the wrong grade for refilling the SPR without major infrastructure investment.
• On natural gas, Schachter sees AECO at $1.40 in mid-September 2026 but a roughly $2.50 winter average and potentially $3-$4 long-term pricing if approved LNG projects add 6 Bcf a day to Canadian demand.
• He is hosting the Catch the Energy Conference on October 17, 2026 in Calgary, with 43 companies presenting, the most in the event's history.

Two-thirds of days closing below their open point to institutional selling; weekly S&P 500 closes under 746.5 would target the low 700s. The Iran conflict and tightening inventories keep oil elevated, and the guest expects energy equities to keep outperforming with WTI upside toward 107. OECD days of inventory (days of demand global stocks cover) sit at 82, near 2008 lows, so oil price forecasts may still move higher. Into winter, favor low-debt, hedged, liquids-rich natural gas producers, while energy royalty companies pay 6%-plus monthly dividends without operating risk. Avoid long bonds as yields target 5.6%; short-term Treasury bills via TreasuryDirect offer safety, and gold support sits near GLD 394 then 356.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Gold And Energy: Central Bank Buying & Undervalued Energy Stocks

• Top takeaway Schachter sees oil stuck in a $75-$90 trading range through the November 3, 2026 US midterms and argues a lame-duck outcome could push WTI down toward $70, while continued war risk keeps a $15-$20 war premium in the market.
• He downplays urgency around refilling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, noting current inventory of 289.7 million barrels is still 90-120 million above the 180-200 million barrel level where Department of Energy analysis flags cavern damage.
• Schachter highlights the crack spread blowing past $100 a barrel as a windfall for refiners, driven by Ukraine-related damage to Russian refineries and Chinese export restrictions, and expects unusually strong Q3 results.
• On natural gas, he points to a wide international arbitrage (TTF around $23/MCF, Asia $25/MCF vs. NYMEX under $4) and frames LNG exporters as the main beneficiaries, with US production potentially rising from 19-20 BCF/day to over 30 BCF/day by decade-end.
• He draws a parallel to the 1974-81 oil cycle when producer multiples went from 2x cash flow to 8-10x, recommends moving energy exposure from 80% to 100% of target weight, and is headlining the October 17 Catch the Energy Conference in Calgary.

Gold bull market is moving from mid to late stage; further upside is likely but a cyclical peak may arrive within one to two years. Central bank gold buying follows price rather than driving it - central banks are price-sensitive and buy more when gold dips. US stablecoin regulation allows operators to sever the token-to-asset link, plus self-audited gold holdings - a red flag for tokenized metal. Solar has driven silver fabrication demand growth for a quarter century but that pillar may have peaked in 2025 with an 8-10% drop ahead. Canadian energy juniors trade under two-times cash flow; oil likely stays in $75-90 range until November midterms with LNG arbitrage wide open.

Josef Schachter: Imminent Gasoline Shortages, Tank Bottoms & 'Much Higher' Oil Prices for Longer

• Top takeaway Schachter argues oil prices are heading 'much higher for longer,' with a 2027 forecast near $90/bbl driven by demand recovery plus SPR refills of up to 600,000 b/d.
• Schachter sees no crude oil shortage — US production is up nearly 1M b/d YoY and floating storage (potentially ~1B bbl) plus China's buying flexibility cushion the market — but warns refined products are tight in Asia because Ukrainian strikes have removed Russian refining capacity and India/China are not exporting.
• Schachter lays out three scenarios: a base case $70-$94 trading range, an escalation that breaks above the $119 March high toward $140-$150, or successful China-brokered talks pushing prices back toward $70.
• Schachter flags severe recession risk at $150/bbl (3-5M b/d demand destruction, negative GDP) compounded by AI-driven layoffs and rising government debt-service costs.
• Schachter prefers integrated 'Seven Sisters' with refining + chemicals + E&P, and highlights Canadian producers trading at a US discount with 25-30 year reserve life and 5-7% dividends.

Global refined-product tightness in Asia, not crude supply, is the real energy shortage — Asian product prices imply more than $150 per barrel of oil. US oil production has surged roughly a million barrels per day, enabling 3-4 million barrels of exports that cushion global markets. China's willingness to withhold 10 million barrels per day of demand makes it the de facto swing buyer for global oil markets. Oil producers are using windfall cash to pay down debt and buy back stock rather than boost drilling, limiting the near-term supply response. Escalation scenarios could push oil above $150 and trigger a global recession; a peace deal could send prices back into the $60s-$70s.

'We're in an Energy Supercycle' - $120+ Oil in Play: Josef Schachter

• Top takeaway Top takeaway: he calls an energy commodity supercycle that is early in its innings, about 'the fifth hole', with oil averaging around $90 next year and possibly $110-120 into the end of the decade. His working numbers are $80 WTI for 2026 (which he thinks may prove too low given current conditions) and $90 WTI for 2027, assuming the war ends and Europe and the US restock their strategic reserves — roughly 500,000-600,000 barrels a day of demand on its own.
• He puts about $20 of the roughly $86 oil price in late July 2026 down to war premium, and cites Federal Reserve of Dallas basin charts putting industry break-even in the mid-$60s, a level prices touched only briefly this year during the peace-talk phase.
• He expects global demand growth near 900,000 barrels a day this year, potentially 1.1-1.2 million if the war ends, against an industry that can supply less than a third of that increment — which leaves higher prices as the only rationing mechanism. He notes US demand rose about 470,000 barrels a day year over year to 20.62 million, roughly half of the world's growth.
• On where to invest, he says stay out of anything in the Middle East or any war zone, and looks to the UK North Sea if it reopens, to Canada (oil sands, conventional, natural gas, west-coast LNG; names he thinks are cheaper than US peers; and a pro-energy Carney government), and to the less-depleted US basins. He adds that US tier three shale wells need about $100 oil to be economic, with tier two viable near $80-90.
• He is positioned at about 80% of his target energy weighting and would move to 100% on his next buy signal. He expects another low if peace talks resume, and argues energy's weighting in the S&P and TSX sits far below its 2008 and 2014 levels — which he frames as the upside — after the TSX Energy index rose 110% off the April 2025 low he flagged as cheap.

Schachter argues only higher prices can ration energy supply, because industry spending already falls far short of demand growth. He sizes the Iran conflict's contribution at roughly $20 per barrel, calling today's crude rally a war premium rather than a demand shift. Oil's mid-60s breakeven sets the floor; at $100, tier three shale wells turn economic and drilling activity expands again. He favors Canadian, US, and reopening UK North Sea exposure while steering clear of anything inside Middle East war zones. China's demand stays resilient, and he argues the US supplies about half of global demand growth this year.

Brien Lundin & Josef Schachter - Navigating the Precious Metals Correction & Energy Sector Trends

• Top takeaway Expects oil to weaken near term if Iran talks resume, but forecasts WTI averaging about $80 for 2026 and roughly $90 in 2027 on winter demand, restocking and SPR rebuilding.
• Argues oil availability is not the problem — cargoes got out of the Persian Gulf and China holds about 1.3 billion barrels in reserve — with a joint Iran-Houthi closure of the two straits the main upside risk.
• Says SPR buyers are price-sensitive, buying in the $65-$75 range rather than at $100, and puts the oil floor near $65, the Dallas Fed break-even, absent a recession.
• Sees natural gas staying dull until October — NYMEX near $2.84 and AECO around $1.60-$1.70 at recording — then turning up on Gulf Coast LNG expansion, LNG Canada ramping to full capacity, and data-center demand.
• Frames this as a third-world-driven commodity cycle that began in 2020 and could run 10-12 years, lifting oil demand from just under 106 million barrels a day toward 111-113 million by the early 2030s.

Lundin argues the precious-metals correction reflects two temporary factors, Fed hawkishness and the Iran war, while debt and deficits keep the bull market intact. Lundin expects majors producing record free cash to buy juniors after a re-rating, an opportunity he calls lower risk at this point. For development projects, Lundin uses a conservative $150-$200 per ounce in the ground as a takeover value benchmark. Schachter forecasts WTI averaging $80 this year and $90 next on winter demand and Strategic Petroleum Reserve restocking, with shale breakevens flooring prices near $65. Nathan Ritchie models producers at $80 oil and $2.50 gas in Alberta, favoring names trading near three to four times cashflow.

Rick Bensignor & Josef Schachter - Is Tech Exhausted? Gold Bottoms? And Top Canadian Oil Picks

Rick Bensignor argues that gold and silver are testing critical technical support levels, suggesting a potential bottom if prices stabilize at current marks. Josef Schachter sees oil prices nearing a bottom and forecasts a Q4 rebound, using the bullish percentage index to time energy stock entries. Both guests maintain a long-term bullish commodities supercycle thesis, viewing current sector pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than trend breaks.

Josef Schatcher and KER QuickTake - Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper & Critical Minerals

Geopolitical tensions and the Iranian conflict could trigger parabolic price spikes in oil, creating specific growth opportunities within the Canadian energy service sector. Historic copper prices are driving significant outperformance in mid-tier producers compared to majors, highlighting a clear valuation and growth wedge for investors. Major M&A activity is accelerating in the precious metals space, with notable deals like Equinox Gold bidding for Orla Mining signaling sector consolidation.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Gold, Silver & Oil Outlook: Major Market Turns

Jeff Christian critically analyzes Silver Institute deficit data, arguing investment demand drives prices more than fabricated supply scarcity narratives. Central banks continue strategic gold accumulation with Christian addressing recent activities in Turkey and France while debunking common market myths. Josef Schachter outlines oil price scenarios ranging from $80 stabilization to new highs, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks.

Josef Schachter Warns: Even Higher Prices At The Pump & 'Tremendous Bargains' in Oil and Gas

Middle East conflict has removed 14-16 million barrels of daily oil production, with reserves and shadow fleets temporarily masking the severe supply shock. Oil prices are forecasted to reach $80-$90 by year-end, with a risk of spiking to $150-$180 which would trigger significant demand destruction. Canadian energy companies in natural gas and oil sands sectors present attractive valuations and tremendous long-term investment bargains for strategic investors.

Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Commodities Deep Dive: Silver Mania and Energy Opportunity

• Top takeaway Josef's headline call: he is not opposed to oil pulling back into the $52-$54 range and explicitly says that level would set up a 'table-pounding buy,' with a possible 10-20% drawdown in energy stocks that would mark a high-conviction re-entry.
• He frames Venezuela as overhyped near-term supply relief because Chevron is the only operator (producing ~260K boe/d, shipping ~130K to the U.S., targeting ~400K), and says scaling Venezuelan production meaningfully (re-piping, secondary recovery, condensate imports) takes years, with material displacement of Canadian heavy crude unlikely before 2028.
• He is constructive on small/mid-cap, growth-oriented Canadian producers once oil recovers, projecting 50%+ upside from the upcoming low and contrasting that with the larger, dividend-and-hedge-anchored names like Whitecap and Freehold; he specifically cites InPlay Oil as a prior example that doubled off the March/April 2025 low.
• He expects Canadian heavy-oil differentials (currently $14-$16) to widen toward $20 by 2028 if Venezuelan and other supply builds compete for Gulf Coast takeaway, and points to Premier Danielle Smith pushing for a West-coast pipeline or expanded rail as a response.
• He highlights today's LNG Canada news that Shell (40%) and Mitsubishi (15%) are weighing sale options on their stakes in the $29B project as a negative signal for Canadian LNG development, since one of the world's biggest LNG players apparently does not see Canada as a great place to invest right now.

Silver near $100 is driven by investment demand, not a true supply shortage, says CPM Group's Jeff Christian. Two major solar panel makers are shifting from silver to copper, reshaping silver's industrial demand outlook. Margin requirement hikes on silver futures have not historically ended rallies, Christian argues after reviewing prior cycles. Oil and gas stocks lag the broader commodity complex, but Schachter sees a table-pounding buy if WTI dips below $54. Central banks buy gold as a fixed share of reserves, so rising prices mean fewer ounces purchased at any given level.

Darrell Fletcher & Josef Schachter - Commodities 2026 Outlook: Silver, Gold, Copper, Oil, Nat Gas

• Top takeaway Schachter forecasts WTI bottoming near $52 in Q1 2026 and rising quarter-by-quarter to peak above $80 in Q4 — well above the $55-60 most companies and 'big boys' are plugging in.
• He issued 'table-pounding buy' recommendations in April 2025 when oil fell below Dallas Fed breakevens (mid-$60s), the S&P/TSX Energy Index dropped below 240, and the S&P Energy Bullish Percentage Index hit 0% — a level he says has only been seen once before in the index's history.
• Schachter expects oil and gas stocks trading at 2-3x cash flow on depressed prices to re-rate sharply if oil rises; he targets 50-100% upside for many names in 2026 and lists specific dividend yields (Freehold 7.1%, Whitecap 6.3%, Marin Energy 10.9%, Surge 7.3%).
• He expects M&A to accelerate as LNG Canada 2 and other FIDs lock in long-term supply contracts, naming Birchcliff and Kelt as takeover candidates and noting three recent takeovers in his coverage (NuVista at $18, Kiwetinohk, and Step Energy).
• On natural gas, Schachter sees storage falling below the 5-year average for the first time (3.43 TCF, 0.7% below), LNG Canada ramping past 1 BCF toward 2 BCF in Q2, and Alberta data-center demand as the key bullish drivers for 2026.

2025 was a record year for metals — gold up over 60%, silver over 160%, copper about 40% — driven by hard-asset rotation and central bank buying. Fletcher expects 2026 metals to stay firm on the same fundamentals, but warns that much of the expected 2026 gain is already priced in. Silver spiked to $80 on thin year-end liquidity, CME margin hikes, and short-squeeze chatter — Fletcher calls the volatility noise over a still-positive backdrop. Schachter is bullish on oil and gas for 2026, forecasting WTI peaks above $80 by Q4 as OPEC spare capacity runs out. Natural gas is the standout energy thesis — LNG exports hit record 18-20 BCF/day and US storage just dipped below the five-year average.