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Brien Lundin & Josef Schachter - Navigating the Precious Metals Correction & Energy Sector Trends

The KE Report Jul 18, 2026

Summary

Lundin argues the precious-metals correction reflects two temporary factors, Fed hawkishness and the Iran war, while debt and deficits keep the bull market intact.

Lundin expects majors producing record free cash to buy juniors after a re-rating, an opportunity he calls lower risk at this point.

For development projects, Lundin uses a conservative $150-$200 per ounce in the ground as a takeover value benchmark.

Schachter forecasts WTI averaging $80 this year and $90 next on winter demand and Strategic Petroleum Reserve restocking, with shale breakevens flooring prices near $65.

Nathan Ritchie models producers at $80 oil and $2.50 gas in Alberta, favoring names trading near three to four times cashflow.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The host cites Agnico Eagle's acquisition of Rupert in Finland, paid at a very hefty premium, as one of the recent high-profile gold M&A deals.

Key points on G Mining Ventures

  • The host points to G Mining's acquisition of G2 Goldfields, which announced roughly $600-$700 per ounce in-ground valuations, as a recent M&A benchmark well above conservative norms.

Key points on Banyan Gold Corp

  • Brien Lundin's prime example of embedded value: Banyan built about 6 million ounces of economic-grade gold with strong metallurgy while trading near $10 per ounce in the ground.
  • The stock moved quickly once the market turned, even before drill results were out, then advanced further on subsequent good news.
  • He expects the stock to go further and holds Banyan up as evidence that companies with proven resources are holding up better in the correction.

Key points on K2 Gold Corp

  • Has a pending drill program that Brien Lundin says carries very high expectations into a weak market.
  • Lundin calls the setup binary: truly great results should still be rewarded, perhaps at 80% of the normal move, while merely good news would likely be punished.

Key points on Prospector Metals Corp

  • Named by Brien Lundin, alongside K2 Gold, as having a pending drill program with expectations set very high.
  • He warns the outcome is binary in the current downtrend: great news can still drive most of the usual move, but good-but-not-great news risks being ignored or sold.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Brien Lundin says the hawkish turn after Kevin Warsh's nomination killed the January gold rally, and that Warsh's first press conference struck a deliberately strict tone on inflation.
  • Lundin argues the hawkishness is for show — President Trump's silence after the press conference suggests it was pre-approved — and that Warsh is in the seat to deliver the rate cuts Trump wants.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hosted the Florida conference Brien Lundin just attended, where roughly 1,000 paid investors stayed eager to hunt for bargains despite the correction — behavior Lundin reads as a bottom indicator.
  • The host recalls Rick Rule's point that nearly all of his career multi-baggers were accompanied by periodic 50% drawdowns, so enduring corrections is the cost of the big returns.

Josef Schachter's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Expects oil to weaken near term if Iran talks resume, but forecasts WTI averaging about $80 for 2026 and roughly $90 in 2027 on winter demand, restocking and SPR rebuilding.
  • Argues oil availability is not the problem — cargoes got out of the Persian Gulf and China holds about 1.3 billion barrels in reserve — with a joint Iran-Houthi closure of the two straits the main upside risk.
  • Says SPR buyers are price-sensitive, buying in the $65-$75 range rather than at $100, and puts the oil floor near $65, the Dallas Fed break-even, absent a recession.
  • Sees natural gas staying dull until October — NYMEX near $2.84 and AECO around $1.60-$1.70 at recording — then turning up on Gulf Coast LNG expansion, LNG Canada ramping to full capacity, and data-center demand.
  • Frames this as a third-world-driven commodity cycle that began in 2020 and could run 10-12 years, lifting oil demand from just under 106 million barrels a day toward 111-113 million by the early 2030s.

Brien Lundin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the gold correction rests on two temporary factors — the Iran war and a hawkish Fed turn — while the structural drivers of debt and deficits are intact, so he expects the metals market to take hold again once they fade.
  • Says the current drawdown matches the routine, nearly yearly drops of the 2000s bull market, and calls this potentially the biggest and least worrisome bull market yet.
  • For the first time in his career he sees the majors offering potential rivaling the best junior drill plays, with record earnings and free cash flow that will eventually fund junior takeovers and a broad re-rating.
  • Warns pending drill news from names like Prospector Metals and K2 Gold is binary in a weak market: truly great results should still be rewarded, while good-but-not-great news will be punished.
  • Values development-stage ounces at a conservative $150-$200 per ounce in-ground, and says record miner margins could justify far higher — even around $1,000 per ounce — in standout cases.

Nathan Ritchie's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Models the companies he covers on $80 WTI and $2.50 AECO over the next 12 months, noting covered producers realize above-AECO prices by reaching Dawn, Henry Hub, California and Gulf Coast markets.
  • Expects prolonged supply disruption around Iran — which he calls an escalation trap that is hard to win — while end-user oil demand stays strong even as China imports less.
  • Prefers the oilier names, in contrast to Josef Schachter's longer-term gas stance, and points to smaller names trading at three to four times cash flow, including a Thailand-focused producer selling at a premium to the Dubai benchmark.
  • Flags Strathcona as a growth name with very large reserves, just weeks past first steam at one of its SAGD projects.
  • Sees the ARC-to-Shell deal as the M&A catalyst: applying that cashflow multiple implies about $90 for Tourmaline versus the $60s, with Canadian inventory drawing interest from US private equity, European majors and Middle East sovereign wealth funds.