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Darrell Fletcher & Josef Schachter - Commodities 2026 Outlook: Silver, Gold, Copper, Oil, Nat Gas

The KE Report Jan 3, 2026

Summary

2025 was a record year for metals — gold up over 60%, silver over 160%, copper about 40% — driven by hard-asset rotation and central bank buying.

Fletcher expects 2026 metals to stay firm on the same fundamentals, but warns that much of the expected 2026 gain is already priced in.

Silver spiked to $80 on thin year-end liquidity, CME margin hikes, and short-squeeze chatter — Fletcher calls the volatility noise over a still-positive backdrop.

Schachter is bullish on oil and gas for 2026, forecasting WTI peaks above $80 by Q4 as OPEC spare capacity runs out.

Natural gas is the standout energy thesis — LNG exports hit record 18-20 BCF/day and US storage just dipped below the five-year average.

Darrell Fletcher's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Fletcher calls 2025 a record year for metals — precious metals up roughly 80%, copper up about 43%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 18-19% — and says he tracks fundamentals rather than technicals.
  • He argues the move into hard assets is 'very early innings,' driven by heavy debt loads, rotation out of government bonds, equity overvaluation, and silver's dual industrial use (electronics, solar).
  • Fletcher is constructive on silver long-term but says the late-2025 spike above $80/oz looks like a short squeeze amplified by thin year-end volumes, with the COMEX registered category reportedly down 60-70% in December; he views the spike as 'outsized' relative to the underlying shortage story.
  • He expects BCOM/SPGCSI index rebalancing in mid-January 2026 to trigger some precious-metals selling as 'noise,' and is watching WTI holding the $55-57 zone and this week's OPEC+ meeting as the crude signals for 2026.
  • Fletcher is 'generally constructive' on US natural gas because LNG exports running 18-20 BCF/day could rise to 35-40 BCF/day by decade-end, while calling Canadian gas 'well valued' with the US front month near $4.

Josef Schachter's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Schachter forecasts WTI bottoming near $52 in Q1 2026 and rising quarter-by-quarter to peak above $80 in Q4 — well above the $55-60 most companies and 'big boys' are plugging in.
  • He issued 'table-pounding buy' recommendations in April 2025 when oil fell below Dallas Fed breakevens (mid-$60s), the S&P/TSX Energy Index dropped below 240, and the S&P Energy Bullish Percentage Index hit 0% — a level he says has only been seen once before in the index's history.
  • Schachter expects oil and gas stocks trading at 2-3x cash flow on depressed prices to re-rate sharply if oil rises; he targets 50-100% upside for many names in 2026 and lists specific dividend yields (Freehold 7.1%, Whitecap 6.3%, Marin Energy 10.9%, Surge 7.3%).
  • He expects M&A to accelerate as LNG Canada 2 and other FIDs lock in long-term supply contracts, naming Birchcliff and Kelt as takeover candidates and noting three recent takeovers in his coverage (NuVista at $18, Kiwetinohk, and Step Energy).
  • On natural gas, Schachter sees storage falling below the 5-year average for the first time (3.43 TCF, 0.7% below), LNG Canada ramping past 1 BCF toward 2 BCF in Q2, and Alberta data-center demand as the key bullish drivers for 2026.