Darrell Fletcher

Darrell Fletcher - Insights From The Commodities Trading Desk: Oil, Diesel, Copper, Gold, Silver

• Top takeaway The guest argues commodities are in a long-term cycle higher and that the market is roughly in the 'third inning' of a 10- to 15-year bull run, with substantial volatility still ahead
• He expects gold to consolidate in a $4,200-$4,700 range through the rest of 2026 before pushing toward $5,000 an ounce in early 2027, citing U.S. debt loads, diversification away from Treasuries, and steady central bank buying
• He is structurally bullish on copper, pointing to tight supply, 11 of the past 12 weeks higher, China refinery outages in October-November, and a roughly 15-year lead time from discovery to production, with M&A likely to accelerate
• On crude, he focuses on dated Brent physical at $118 as of recording and on diesel (wholesale over $5, U.S. retail at an all-time high near $6.50) as the truest read on the market, and sees backwardation into 2027 supporting $75-$80 even after the sharp sell-off that day
• He argues commodities are now less tied to interest rates than historically, noting that metals last week shrugged off the expected rate hike because physical supply-demand and the regional securitization of supply chains are dominating price action

Broad commodity indexes are up roughly 30% year-to-date and the CRB hit a multi-decade high, suggesting this bull market still has runway. Paper oil price moves diverge sharply from physical market tightness — dated Brent held above $118 even with WTI futures dropping to $91. Copper's 15-year mine development cycle and tight supply support structural strength, with M&A accelerating as gold miners diversify into copper. Gold is consolidating in a 4200-4700 range; a push toward $5000 looks likely in early 2027 as central bank buying continues. Commodities are decoupling from interest rate correlations as supply chain securitization and deglobalization reshape physical-market pricing.

Darrell Fletcher - Monthly Commodity Recap: Is This A Commodity SuperCycle?

• Top takeaway Argues a long-term commodity super cycle is underway, driven by post-COVID supply chain disruption and the geopolitical re-securitization of supply across regions
• Flags the products side of energy as the real story: diesel YTD up roughly 112%, gas oil up about 114%, gasoline up about 103%, with crack spreads hitting all-time highs for refiners
• Warns oil upside shocks have gone muted even as the US strategic reserve has been drawn for 23 straight weeks at multi-million-barrel rates, pushing refill pressure deep into 2027-2028
• Sees structurally higher floors for copper from mining cost inflation and supply constraints that are driving M&A; COMEX copper near $6.60 is up about 45% year over year, with $7s on the 2027 curve
• Expects precious metals to consolidate after a strong month - gold up roughly 10% and silver up about 14-15% - with $4,500 flagged as the key level to watch on gold

August was a broad commodity rally — Bloomberg commodity index up 7%, agriculture sector up 12%, with gold and silver each gaining roughly 10%. Crude spot stayed muted despite war headlines; the real signal is in the narrowing backwardation curve and record-high diesel crack spreads. Higher energy and development costs are pushing copper producers toward M&A instead of organic mine builds, lifting the long-run price floor. Gold defended the 4000 level and is consolidating near 4500, with managed money steadily adding positions since April. A strong El Nino on the horizon could disrupt grains, softs, and shipping — layering fresh risk onto already tight global supply chains.

Darrell Fletcher - Inside Commodity Markets: Oil, Natural Gas, Copper Price Range, PM’s Correction

• Top takeaway Argues crude is moving into a new, higher trading range even after the Middle East conflict resolves — the year started with a $55-65 range but 'everything's changed' — with the war risk premium piled up in the front of the curve and likely to roll into the 2027-2028 contracts.
• Calls the SPR drawdown concerning, saying the US has been pulling about 3.5 million barrels a day for 17 straight weeks to what he considers operationally concerning levels, and he agrees the US and Japan eventually face a refill problem.
• Remains guarded on the Iran conflict: the market is exhaustingly headline-driven with $5-7 daily swings, the strait remains effectively shut in, the Red Sea front has not come off, and he doubts any eventual agreement will resemble past ones.
• Names copper the most interesting metal for the rest of the year — steady around $6.30 on COMEX with tight inventories — but says the market is guarded ahead of the Commerce Department's tariff recommendation, which he thinks would not make sense for US manufacturers.
• Views the sharp reversal in gold from its early-2026 peak as a healthy correction that set a new floor around the defended $4,000 mark, saying fundamentals have not changed much and he sees no major downside pressure.

Crude's front-month price is headline-driven, while steep backwardation (near-term prices above later ones) in the calendar 2027 strip signals a calmer, lower medium-term range. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR — America's emergency oil stockpile) draws averaged 3.5 million barrels a day for 17 straight weeks, which Fletcher calls operationally concerning. US natural gas looks comfortable, with storage 6.4% above the five-year average, while European storage sits 20% below average heading into winter. Copper keeps a floor near $6 a pound as metal stockpiles into the US ahead of a pending Commerce tariff decision. Gold's reversal from its 2026 peak reads as a healthy correction, and defense of the $4,000 mark points to new floors for gold and copper.

Darrell Fletcher - Mid-Year Commodity Correction & H2 Outlook: Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum

• Top takeaway Darrell Fletcher argues the mid-2026 commodity sell-off is a constructive correction rather than the end of the bull market, noting broad indexes were still up double digits year over year despite falling about 9% on the month as of the June 29 recording.
• He names copper, oil, and gold as his three focus markets for the second half of 2026, ranking copper first because it looks steady-to-bullish into the US copper tariff decision.
• On oil he is guarded near $70 a barrel, arguing the market has stripped out the war risk premium too fully given the two parties' history with the 60-day MOU, and that physical flows and strategic reserve restocking will take months to sort into a new trading range.
• He is neutral on gold for the second half, treating $4,000 as the key psychological support after an 11% monthly drop, and expects range-bound, steady trade for the rest of the year if it holds against a stronger dollar and a hawkish Fed rate path.
• He argues copper's long-term outlook stays positive, citing COMEX holding $6.10, the COMEX-over-LME arbitrage near $550 a metric ton, and a contango forward curve approaching $7 a pound for late 2028 to early 2029.

The guest calls the June commodity sell-off a constructive correction: indexes are down roughly 9% on the month but keep double-digit year-over-year gains. A stronger dollar and a hawkish Fed rate path drove the sell-off; the guest flags gold's $4,000 level as the support to watch. WTI near $70 seeks a new range as the Iran war premium fades; the guest is guarded, citing restocking needs and a fragile 60-day deal. Copper is the steadiest major commodity, up 7% year to date on the London Metal Exchange, with the US tariff decision the swing factor. Natural gas stays range-bound near $3.20-$3.30 with storage ahead of the five-year average, and the guest's second-half watch list is copper, oil, and gold.

The Fed Is Financing the Deficit

Doug Casey argues that widening U.S. deficits force the Federal Reserve to create new money, a mechanism he believes will sharply accelerate consumer inflation. Casey explains the debt monetization process: the central bank buys government debt, deposits new funds into the banking system, and commercial banks multiply that money through lending. This macroeconomic outlook directly supports the investment thesis for hard assets like gold and silver as hedges against currency debasement and systemic inflation risk.

Silver’s Next Move Could Shock Investors

Michael Oliver argues that silver has broken decisively from its long-standing trading range, signaling a potential shift into a new, higher price regime. Oliver uses momentum analysis and historical commodity market comparisons to support his case for silver prices moving faster than investors anticipate. The discussion focuses on technical and momentum signals rather than supply-demand fundamentals, drawing parallels to past commodity breakout patterns.

The Bond Market Is Driving Mortgage Pain

Melody Wright tracks the 10-year Treasury yield because mortgage rates follow it directly, and yields have stayed stubbornly high despite rate-cut expectations. Rising mortgage rates are pressuring housing affordability, and Wright warns that geopolitical uncertainty could push Treasury yields even higher through the fall. Wright argues that persistent bond market weakness creates a compounding risk for housing demand, as buyers face elevated borrowing costs with no clear relief in sight.

Buy The Dip: $10,000 Gold is Coming

Doug Casey argues the US-Iran ceasefire won't hold and the world may be in the early stages of a wider conflict, with energy supply disruptions likely. He expects Federal Reserve monetization of roughly $2 trillion annual deficits to push inflation sharply higher, with interest rates like the early 1980s. Gold near $4,400 is no longer a bargain, but he still sees $10,000-$20,000 gold eventually and calls gold and silver mining stocks the real bargains. He favors developers over explorers and majors, buys private placements for warrants, and likes royalties even though crowded competition has compressed margins. He is bullish across commodities - silver, copper, uranium, oil, natural gas, and agriculture - citing historically cheap index levels and years of underinvestment.

The Discovery That Sparked a Uranium Rush

The guest argues one 2012 discovery flipped the southwest Athabasca Basin from ignored ground to an active claim-staking area. He credits Fission Uranium's Triple R find and NexGen's Arrow discovery with pulling claims and further discoveries into that corner. Standard Uranium's Davidson River covers 31,000 hectares staked in 2012, acquired from the original staker in 2017. Earlier uranium finds clustered in the basin's east, where Cameco's Cigar Lake sits — district attention can shift over time. The next step he describes is exploring the package, with no drill results or resource estimates shared in this clip.

Peter Grandich Gold, Silver & Copper Updates

Grandich argues the metals market has largely bottomed, with most of the washout already priced in unless a broader market crash occurs. Copper remains his strongest long-term conviction due to structural supply deficits, while silver may outperform gold in the near term on industrial demand. Central bank buying, Asian physical demand, and potential gold-backed Treasury discussions could all support higher gold prices over time.

Why Gold Falls During War

Doomberg argues Gulf states may sell gold reserves for liquidity if conflict blocks oil revenue, explaining gold's counterintuitive weakness during Middle East tensions. Gold prices rally when peace looks more likely because Gulf countries retain oil income and avoid forced gold sales to raise cash. This liquidity-driven selling pressure offers a framework for understanding gold's unexpected price action during geopolitical crises.

Darrell Fletcher - Global Commodity Trends: Oil, Nat Gas, Copper, Critical Minerals, Gold

Commodities expert Darrell Fletcher analyzes broad market resilience, noting the CRB Index remains strong despite ongoing consolidation patterns across the complex. Copper's structural bull run is driven by AI power infrastructure demand and global supply chain securitization, signaling long-term investment opportunities in base metals. Gold and silver are experiencing a necessary corrective phase, requiring specific economic catalysts to break consolidation and spark the next major leg higher.

BUY THE DIP: Gold & Silver Are Nearing Floors Before Next Huge Climbs

Gold and silver are experiencing short-term pullbacks that represent buying opportunities before the next major price surge higher. Massive government debt, inflation, and money supply growth are creating a doom loop that will eventually trigger a financial reset. Specific mining equities like Vizsla Silver, Coeur Mining, and Endeavour Silver offer asymmetric upside for investors.

The Big Reset Is Happening

Willem Middelkoop details his 'Big Reset' thesis, explaining how BRICS nations are actively challenging the U.S. dollar system, creating long-term inflationary pressures. Commodities are positioned to be primary beneficiaries of persistent inflation, debt stress, and a major capital rotation away from traditional financial assets. Investors should consider royalty and streaming companies, and physical precious metals, as gold and silver continue their steady migration from West to East.

Iran Has Won The War - Here’s What Happens Next

Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor argues that Iran has strategically outmaneuvered the United States, fundamentally shifting the global balance of power in the Persian Gulf. The escalating conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose severe threats to global supply chains, threatening to accelerate inflation and trigger a U.S. debt crisis. Investors should diversify portfolios into hard assets like gold, silver, uranium, and copper as geopolitical instability erodes confidence in the U.S. economy and fiat currencies.

America’s Geopolitical Strategy is Completely Failing

Strait of Hormuz disruptions are creating inflationary pressures that extend beyond oil, positioning gold as a primary beneficiary for investors. UAE potentially leaving OPEC signals a major geopolitical realignment that could fundamentally alter global energy markets and commodity pricing. Silver faces a compounding supply shock from sulfuric acid restrictions in China, creating a critical investment opportunity alongside gold.

Gold Has Peaked For Now, But the Next Climb is Coming

Panelists argue gold has peaked short-term but forecast a commodity supercycle driven by monetary expansion and structural deficits over the next decade. Geopolitical shocks like the Strait of Hormuz closure reinforce the long-term investment thesis for energy and metals as a store of purchasing power. Investors should maintain exposure to hard assets as U.S. debt trajectory and inflationary pressures create a multi-year bullish case for commodities.

Darrell Fletcher - Commodity Volatility & the 2026 Outlook: Silver Spikes, Natural Gas Chaos

• Top takeaway Fletcher argues the 2026 natural gas spike is weather-driven but exposes a tighter structural backdrop: LNG exports near 20 BCF/day plus AI-driven power demand, with intraday moves from $5.80 to $7.30/MMBtu as the February contract rolls into March.
• He warns storage could pull 900 BCF to 1 TCF over three weeks, pushing end-of-season inventories back toward roughly 22-year lows if February stays cold.
• Fletcher is constructive on copper around $6 on a forecast 2026 supply deficit, noting COMEX is still in contango and the deficit should spill into tin and aluminum.
• On silver, which has run from about $50 in late November 2025 to roughly $117 by late January 2026, Fletcher calls it a one-way momentum trade and says he favors gold over silver for 2026 given the parabolic move.
• Fletcher's 2026 macro themes carry over from 2025: accelerating supply-chain control and regionalization, power and infrastructure buildouts drawing gas and industrial metals, persistent geopolitical and tariff risk, weather-driven volatility, a weaker US dollar, and continued rotation into hard assets.

Natural gas spiked from $5.80 to $7.30 in hours on Permian and Haynesville freeze-offs and a February contract rollover. Silver's parabolic run from $50 to $117/oz looks more like momentum speculation than fundamentals, the guest argues. Copper is trending toward $6/lb on supply deficits; tin and aluminum are forecast in deficit too. Fletcher's 2026 macro themes include supply-chain regionalization, geopolitical tariffs, weather volatility, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Rising clearing-house margins and commodity index rebalances have not slowed the rotation into hard assets.

Darrell Fletcher & Josef Schachter - Commodities 2026 Outlook: Silver, Gold, Copper, Oil, Nat Gas

• Top takeaway Fletcher calls 2025 a record year for metals — precious metals up roughly 80%, copper up about 43%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 18-19% — and says he tracks fundamentals rather than technicals.
• He argues the move into hard assets is 'very early innings,' driven by heavy debt loads, rotation out of government bonds, equity overvaluation, and silver's dual industrial use (electronics, solar).
• Fletcher is constructive on silver long-term but says the late-2025 spike above $80/oz looks like a short squeeze amplified by thin year-end volumes, with the COMEX registered category reportedly down 60-70% in December; he views the spike as 'outsized' relative to the underlying shortage story.
• He expects BCOM/SPGCSI index rebalancing in mid-January 2026 to trigger some precious-metals selling as 'noise,' and is watching WTI holding the $55-57 zone and this week's OPEC+ meeting as the crude signals for 2026.
• Fletcher is 'generally constructive' on US natural gas because LNG exports running 18-20 BCF/day could rise to 35-40 BCF/day by decade-end, while calling Canadian gas 'well valued' with the US front month near $4.

2025 was a record year for metals — gold up over 60%, silver over 160%, copper about 40% — driven by hard-asset rotation and central bank buying. Fletcher expects 2026 metals to stay firm on the same fundamentals, but warns that much of the expected 2026 gain is already priced in. Silver spiked to $80 on thin year-end liquidity, CME margin hikes, and short-squeeze chatter — Fletcher calls the volatility noise over a still-positive backdrop. Schachter is bullish on oil and gas for 2026, forecasting WTI peaks above $80 by Q4 as OPEC spare capacity runs out. Natural gas is the standout energy thesis — LNG exports hit record 18-20 BCF/day and US storage just dipped below the five-year average.