Darrell Fletcher - Insights From The Commodities Trading Desk: Oil, Diesel, Copper, Gold, Silver
The KE Report Sep 22, 2026 23:11
Summary
Broad commodity indexes are up roughly 30% year-to-date and the CRB hit a multi-decade high, suggesting this bull market still has runway.
Paper oil price moves diverge sharply from physical market tightness — dated Brent held above $118 even with WTI futures dropping to $91.
Copper's 15-year mine development cycle and tight supply support structural strength, with M&A accelerating as gold miners diversify into copper.
Gold is consolidating in a 4200-4700 range; a push toward $5000 looks likely in early 2027 as central bank buying continues.
Commodities are decoupling from interest rate correlations as supply chain securitization and deglobalization reshape physical-market pricing.
Darrell Fletcher's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest argues commodities are in a long-term cycle higher and that the market is roughly in the 'third inning' of a 10- to 15-year bull run, with substantial volatility still ahead
- He expects gold to consolidate in a $4,200-$4,700 range through the rest of 2026 before pushing toward $5,000 an ounce in early 2027, citing U.S. debt loads, diversification away from Treasuries, and steady central bank buying
- He is structurally bullish on copper, pointing to tight supply, 11 of the past 12 weeks higher, China refinery outages in October-November, and a roughly 15-year lead time from discovery to production, with M&A likely to accelerate
- On crude, he focuses on dated Brent physical at $118 as of recording and on diesel (wholesale over $5, U.S. retail at an all-time high near $6.50) as the truest read on the market, and sees backwardation into 2027 supporting $75-$80 even after the sharp sell-off that day
- He argues commodities are now less tied to interest rates than historically, noting that metals last week shrugged off the expected rate hike because physical supply-demand and the regional securitization of supply chains are dominating price action