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Darrell Fletcher - Inside Commodity Markets: Oil, Natural Gas, Copper Price Range, PM’s Correction

The KE Report Jul 27, 2026

Summary

Crude's front-month price is headline-driven, while steep backwardation (near-term prices above later ones) in the calendar 2027 strip signals a calmer, lower medium-term range.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR — America's emergency oil stockpile) draws averaged 3.5 million barrels a day for 17 straight weeks, which Fletcher calls operationally concerning.

US natural gas looks comfortable, with storage 6.4% above the five-year average, while European storage sits 20% below average heading into winter.

Copper keeps a floor near $6 a pound as metal stockpiles into the US ahead of a pending Commerce tariff decision.

Gold's reversal from its 2026 peak reads as a healthy correction, and defense of the $4,000 mark points to new floors for gold and copper.

Darrell Fletcher's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues crude is moving into a new, higher trading range even after the Middle East conflict resolves — the year started with a $55-65 range but 'everything's changed' — with the war risk premium piled up in the front of the curve and likely to roll into the 2027-2028 contracts.
  • Calls the SPR drawdown concerning, saying the US has been pulling about 3.5 million barrels a day for 17 straight weeks to what he considers operationally concerning levels, and he agrees the US and Japan eventually face a refill problem.
  • Remains guarded on the Iran conflict: the market is exhaustingly headline-driven with $5-7 daily swings, the strait remains effectively shut in, the Red Sea front has not come off, and he doubts any eventual agreement will resemble past ones.
  • Names copper the most interesting metal for the rest of the year — steady around $6.30 on COMEX with tight inventories — but says the market is guarded ahead of the Commerce Department's tariff recommendation, which he thinks would not make sense for US manufacturers.
  • Views the sharp reversal in gold from its early-2026 peak as a healthy correction that set a new floor around the defended $4,000 mark, saying fundamentals have not changed much and he sees no major downside pressure.