Skip to main content

Buy The Dip: $10,000 Gold is Coming

VRIC Media Jun 19, 2026

Summary

Doug Casey argues the US-Iran ceasefire won't hold and the world may be in the early stages of a wider conflict, with energy supply disruptions likely.

He expects Federal Reserve monetization of roughly $2 trillion annual deficits to push inflation sharply higher, with interest rates like the early 1980s.

Gold near $4,400 is no longer a bargain, but he still sees $10,000-$20,000 gold eventually and calls gold and silver mining stocks the real bargains.

He favors developers over explorers and majors, buys private placements for warrants, and likes royalties even though crowded competition has compressed margins.

He is bullish across commodities - silver, copper, uranium, oil, natural gas, and agriculture - citing historically cheap index levels and years of underinvestment.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Doug Casey says he is not interested in the big gold companies like Barrick because they are run by suits and bureaucrats rather than entrepreneurs with boots-on-the-ground experience.

Key points on Newmont

  • Casey lumps Newmont with Barrick as the big producers he rules out, arguing they are run by bureaucratic suits rather than founder-operators, which is why he prefers mid-tier developers.

Key points on Franco-Nevada Corp

  • Casey credits Franco-Nevada, founded by Pierre Lassonde and Seymour Schulich, as the first royalty company that proved the royalty concept works.
  • He argues the success of Franco-Nevada has attracted dozens of imitators, so competition for decent royalties has compressed margins across the royalty business.

Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals

  • Casey reveals he was a founding shareholder of Silver Wheaton and remains friendly to the royalty concept because royalties collect money off the top without operational risk.
  • Host Darrell Thomas raises Wheaton-style royalty valuation, noting pipeline optionality from exploration projects and mine extensions makes these companies hard to value accurately.

Darrell Thomas's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Host Darrell Thomas presses Casey on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold, how $40 trillion of US debt and Fed monetization end, and why he believes the commodities bull market is not over after January's blow-off top.
  • Thomas says he started buying physical gold in 2020, is still accumulating, and has been adding miners outside of physical, noting producers' all-in sustaining costs leave huge margins at current gold and silver prices.

Doug Casey's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Casey's main way of playing gold now is mining stocks, which he calls still really cheap even after doubling or tripling in 18 months, and he thinks the sector could rise 10-15 times overall with some stocks going up 100-to-1.
  • He expects the US-Iran ceasefire to be temporary and warns the world may be in the early stages of a wider conflict, while arguing Fed monetization of roughly $2 trillion deficits will push inflation sharply higher, with US borrowing costs possibly returning to the 15-17% seen in the early 1980s.
  • On gold itself he has turned less bullish on price, saying it is no longer a bargain relative to houses, cars, or meals, but he still sees $10,000-$20,000 eventually and wants to keep accumulating it as the only financial asset that is not someone else's liability.
  • Within mining he favors developers over explorers and the big producers, arguing the best risk-reward sits with companies that have found a deposit and can see production on a runway, while preferring private placements that come with multi-year warrants.
  • He is bullish on commodities broadly, including silver, copper, uranium, oil, and especially natural gas at about $3, saying commodity indices sit at some of their cheapest levels in history, and he is enthusiastic about Argentina and Uruguay, where he says property in Buenos Aires costs roughly 10% of the New York equivalent.