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Darrell Fletcher - Mid-Year Commodity Correction & H2 Outlook: Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum

The KE Report Jun 30, 2026

Summary

The guest calls the June commodity sell-off a constructive correction: indexes are down roughly 9% on the month but keep double-digit year-over-year gains.

A stronger dollar and a hawkish Fed rate path drove the sell-off; the guest flags gold's $4,000 level as the support to watch.

WTI near $70 seeks a new range as the Iran war premium fades; the guest is guarded, citing restocking needs and a fragile 60-day deal.

Copper is the steadiest major commodity, up 7% year to date on the London Metal Exchange, with the US tariff decision the swing factor.

Natural gas stays range-bound near $3.20-$3.30 with storage ahead of the five-year average, and the guest's second-half watch list is copper, oil, and gold.

Darrell Fletcher's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Darrell Fletcher argues the mid-2026 commodity sell-off is a constructive correction rather than the end of the bull market, noting broad indexes were still up double digits year over year despite falling about 9% on the month as of the June 29 recording.
  • He names copper, oil, and gold as his three focus markets for the second half of 2026, ranking copper first because it looks steady-to-bullish into the US copper tariff decision.
  • On oil he is guarded near $70 a barrel, arguing the market has stripped out the war risk premium too fully given the two parties' history with the 60-day MOU, and that physical flows and strategic reserve restocking will take months to sort into a new trading range.
  • He is neutral on gold for the second half, treating $4,000 as the key psychological support after an 11% monthly drop, and expects range-bound, steady trade for the rest of the year if it holds against a stronger dollar and a hawkish Fed rate path.
  • He argues copper's long-term outlook stays positive, citing COMEX holding $6.10, the COMEX-over-LME arbitrage near $550 a metric ton, and a contango forward curve approaching $7 a pound for late 2028 to early 2029.