Luke Gromen

Luke Gromen & Darius Dale: Which Inning Are We In?

• Top takeaway Argues the US is further along in the game than Darius suggests — specifically at the 6th-8th inning for a bond market crisis — because 'true interest expense' (interest plus entitlements plus veterans affairs) has already hit 105% of receipts and is heading toward 115% per the Q3 TBAC report, putting the country in a print-or-default regime.
• Frames the US fiscal problem as a Weimar-style reparations trap: roughly 60% of annual outlays are owed in currencies the Fed cannot print (Social Security cost-of-living adjustments plus Medicare/Medicaid/VA hips, knees, pharma, doctor time), so every dollar they print accelerates the price of the things they owe faster than their own inflation.
• Expects Bessent's $6 billion Treasury buybacks to escalate to $8-10 billion as the long end runs away, viewing that reflexive upsizing as an explicit 'whatever it takes' signal — and instructs investors to 'buy gold, buy stocks, buy anything that is finite' and 'sell dollars' whenever it appears.
• Believes the Fed loses the long end no matter what it does — hiking accelerates growth via boomer consumption, widens the deficit, and pulls in foreign selling of US duration; cutting signals surrender on inflation into an 8% nominal-growth economy and also pushes yields higher.
• Recommends a portfolio of roughly 15% cash, 40% gold and gold miners, 15% electrical-infrastructure equities, 5-7% Bitcoin, and the balance in blended large-cap equities, framing cash as 'ballast' to lean into the volatility he expects from the political, inflationary path ahead.

Gromen and Dale argue US true interest expense at 105% of receipts already signals a fiscal crisis several innings along. Dale's Paradigm A to E framework tracks fiscal dominance into debasement and political realignment; a bond market crisis could trigger Paradigm D by 2028. Fair value on the 10-year sits around 5.87% per Dale's models, but life insurers cannot rotate from private credit into Treasuries at any yield. Both guests see AI capex driving a productivity boom and major risk-asset gains before a bond reckoning forces yield curve control. Allocations lean into scarce assets: Gromen targets roughly 40 percent gold and gold miners with about 15 percent electrical-infrastructure equities; Dale expects bubbles in equities, gold, and Bitcoin.

Luke Gromen: 'GOLD Has to Soar' as War Ramps Up and Debt 'Doom Loop' Accelerates

• Top takeaway The guest argues gold has to soar: if the US-China economic divorce the war is driving continues, he expects much higher gold prices and a much lower trade value of the dollar against the yuan, the yen and, to a lesser degree, the euro.
• He calls US equities a Nike-shaped setup, expecting a drop of maybe 10-15% (20% he doubts but cannot rule out) that would disrupt Treasury markets and force fresh dollar liquidity, and notes equity markets priced in gold are still about 30% below their late-2021 highs.
• On the US debt doom loop he sees no way out short of devaluation: a currency weak enough against gold would let the US pay off its debt overnight, he would not rule out gold at $20,000 an ounce or more, and he expects governments to eventually print to cap bond yields.
• He says silver is wildly mispriced as an industrial metal, holds a small position in it, and expects owners of physical silver to be rewarded, probably within two years, while paper silver cannot fund the build-out of industrial and EV supply chains.
• He is running a defensive book: 20-22% of his liquid net worth in cash and T-bills, plus high allocations to gold and US electrical-infrastructure equities, and he expects an early-2000s-style period where industrials, commodities, gold and gold miners do well while tech valuations normalise.

Gromen argues a US-China economic divorce forces gold to new highs, as Chinese trade surpluses get recycled into gold through offshore hubs. He expects a Nike-shaped equity drawdown of roughly 10% to 20%, then a recovery once dollar liquidity is injected again. Renewed conflict pushes oil and Treasury yields higher from already-elevated levels, with depleted commodity inventories amplifying the shock. Silver looks mispriced as an industrial metal, and electrification supply chains cannot be built with paper metal, only mined ounces. He calls financial repression plus defense-spending stimulus a bad bet, and holds 20% to 22% of liquid net worth in cash and T-bills.

Luke Gromen: The Mother of All Supply Disruptions & Why Gold Will Go 'Much Higher'

Luke Gromen warns of the largest commodity supply disruption in history, driven by geopolitical tensions and unprecedented globalization levels. Sovereign debt and equity valuations are at extreme levels, creating significant market vulnerabilities that investors must actively navigate. Gold is positioned to go 'much higher' as the global monetary order shifts and central banks increase their reserve holdings.

The Commodity War Is Escalating

Luke Gromen highlights escalating global trade conflicts extending into critical commodities like helium, rare earths, copper, and nickel. Strategic pressure points between major powers are disrupting supply chains, potentially driving sustained inflation across global markets. Investors should monitor how geopolitical tensions in critical infrastructure metals could trigger significant ripple effects in global bond markets.

Hormuz Is Fueling Inflation

Luke Gromen analyzes how Strait of Hormuz disruptions extend beyond oil, creating cascading inflationary pressures across multiple commodity sectors. Tightening supply chains are driving cost increases in fuel, fertilizer, and industrial inputs, signaling broader inflation ahead. Investors should monitor geopolitical risks in the Middle East as key indicators for commodity allocation and inflation hedging strategies.

America’s Geopolitical Strategy is Completely Failing

Strait of Hormuz disruptions are creating inflationary pressures that extend beyond oil, positioning gold as a primary beneficiary for investors. UAE potentially leaving OPEC signals a major geopolitical realignment that could fundamentally alter global energy markets and commodity pricing. Silver faces a compounding supply shock from sulfuric acid restrictions in China, creating a critical investment opportunity alongside gold.

Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.