Luke Gromen: 'GOLD Has to Soar' as War Ramps Up and Debt 'Doom Loop' Accelerates

Commodity Culture Jul 21, 2026

Summary

Gromen argues a US-China economic divorce forces gold to new highs, as Chinese trade surpluses get recycled into gold through offshore hubs.

He expects a Nike-shaped equity drawdown of roughly 10% to 20%, then a recovery once dollar liquidity is injected again.

Renewed conflict pushes oil and Treasury yields higher from already-elevated levels, with depleted commodity inventories amplifying the shock.

Silver looks mispriced as an industrial metal, and electrification supply chains cannot be built with paper metal, only mined ounces.

He calls financial repression plus defense-spending stimulus a bad bet, and holds 20% to 22% of liquid net worth in cash and T-bills.

Top takeaway The guest argues gold has to soar: if the US-China economic divorce the war is driving continues, he expects much higher gold prices and a much lower trade value of the dollar against the yuan, the yen and, to a lesser degree, the euro.
He calls US equities a Nike-shaped setup, expecting a drop of maybe 10-15% (20% he doubts but cannot rule out) that would disrupt Treasury markets and force fresh dollar liquidity, and notes equity markets priced in gold are still about 30% below their late-2021 highs.
On the US debt doom loop he sees no way out short of devaluation: a currency weak enough against gold would let the US pay off its debt overnight, he would not rule out gold at $20,000 an ounce or more, and he expects governments to eventually print to cap bond yields.
He says silver is wildly mispriced as an industrial metal, holds a small position in it, and expects owners of physical silver to be rewarded, probably within two years, while paper silver cannot fund the build-out of industrial and EV supply chains.
He is running a defensive book: 20-22% of his liquid net worth in cash and T-bills, plus high allocations to gold and US electrical-infrastructure equities, and he expects an early-2000s-style period where industrials, commodities, gold and gold miners do well while tech valuations normalise.

Top takeaway Gromen reads Treasury Secretary Bessent's New York Economic Club speech, published the same day as a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Hamiltonian economics backing Trump's economic statecraft, as Bessent signalling that gold is coming back into the monetary system.
His argument is that Hamiltonian economics cannot run on the post-1971 dollar structure, because tariffs and industrial policy do not emit the dollars the system needs, which implies much higher gold prices and a much weaker dollar against the yuan, yen and euro.

Top takeaway Gromen uses the Buffett metric, total equity market cap as a share of GDP, as his headline valuation gauge but adjusts it for US federal debt, and says on that basis US equities are now in complete la-la land, past the January 2000 reading.
He agrees with the Buffett line that it has been a bad idea to bet against America for 250 years, while adding that in 1850 it had likewise been a bad idea to bet against China, which had led for about 1,500 years before its century of humiliation.

Top takeaway He appears in the video only as the episode sponsor, in a host-read advertisement for ARK Silver, Gold, Osmium, presented as its owner and a bullion dealer praised even by competitors for being honest and level-headed, offering special prices on gold and silver bullion.