Peter Boockvar

Peter Boockvar: I’m Getting Ready to Buy Silver Again

• Top takeaway Peter argues oil is structurally bullish and will not dismiss the possibility of an inflation-adjusted $200/bbl given drawn inventories, exhausted strategic-reserve 'Band-Aids', and persistent Strait supply disruption.
• He sold nearly all physical silver after the late-December/early-January parabolic move and roughly 50% pullback, and is preparing to buy back, saying 'the worst is over' but waiting on gold/rate signals.
• He is multi-year bullish on gold but expects near-term choppiness tied to real rates, the dollar, and the 10-year; he is also constructive on platinum on the view that hybrids use more platinum per vehicle than ICE.
• He sees copper as the commodity he is most uncertain on, citing conflicting supply-side views and owning no pure-play copper producers today (only as a derivative from miners).
• He favors non-US, non-AI equities on dollar-diversification and valuation grounds — naming BP (UK), Canadian Natural Resources (Canada), Nestlé (Switzerland), Veolia (France), plus Singapore, Vietnam, India, Hong Kong, China, Brazil, and Argentina.

Boockvar argues oil could reach $200 per barrel because strategic and commercial inventory releases have already filled 1B+ barrels of supply gaps. Boockvar plans to buy physical silver after a roughly 50% pullback from its parabolic peak; he is patient on gold until rates and the dollar clarify. Boockvar says mining stocks print robust cash flows but still trade with the metal day-to-day rather than as typical earnings momentum plays. Boockvar calls the Fed's latest hike policy tweaking; he argues the 10-year at 5% is doing the real work of setting the cost of money. Boockvar warns AI capex masks a two-lane US economy; he prefers Asia and Europe equities for diversification outside the AI trade.

Peter Boockvar & Dana Lyons - Commodities Hit 14-Year Highs as the 40-Year Bond Bull Dies

• Top takeaway Boockvar argues the 40-year bond bull ended in two steps: the 2021-22 inflation shock and the Bank of Japan's July 2023 end of yield curve control, which he calls the bigger structural break.
• He calls Bessent's Treasury buying of long-end Treasuries 'price management, not liquidity management' and warns the market will keep testing an official that tries to defend a price.
• Boockvar describes the US economy as K-shaped: data-center construction and upper-income spending are strong, while housing is in recession and lower-to-middle income consumers are stretched.
• He frames the current move as a longer-term commodity bull market built on years of underinvestment in oil, gas and industrial metals; the Bloomberg Commodity Index hit a 14-year high in the week recorded.
• On gold, he says central-bank buying gives a firm floor and notes gold and silver miners are profitable at all-in sustainable costs of $1,500 to $2,000 an ounce, even with gold near $4,000.

Bond vigilantes now set the cost of capital — Japan's yield curve control exit and 2021–22 inflation ended the 40-year bond bull. A broad commodity supercycle is underway, driven by years of underinvestment in oil, gas, and industrial metals; CRB hit a 14-year high. Boockvar warns Treasury intervention in long yields invites escalating tests from bond vigilantes; price fixes rarely hold. Gold miners earn outsized margins — AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) runs $1,500–$2,000 against gold near $4,000. Energy equities (XLE) hit new all-time highs on a multi-year cup-and-handle breakout while crude oil itself stays range-bound.

Peter Boockvar & Brien Lundin - Geopolitics to Metals Mania: Venezuela, Critical Minerals, PMs

• Top takeaway Peter argues that despite WTI trading near $58 and the US invasion of Venezuela, oil is in a compelling risk-reward setup for a cyclical rise, citing extreme bearish sentiment and positioning, maturing US shale production, OPEC discipline, and an inflation-adjusted cheap nominal price
• The guest says the rest of the commodity complex is in a bullish posture with industrial metals leading, and that oil and ag could eventually "join the party" as critical inputs benefit from a weaker dollar and hard-asset demand
• Peter argues the critical-minerals push changes demand dynamics by creating a hoarding effect, since declaring a metal critical implies scarcity and incentivizes extra inventory; he notes silver was recently added to the US Geological Survey critical list
• The guest argues the AI trade is becoming more differentiated in 2026, with investors punishing companies for excessive CapEx (he cites Oracle and Meta) while narrowing in on true winners, and warns the rate of change in returns is set to slow
• Peter flags persistently higher long-term interest rates across the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan as a major underappreciated risk, noting the 10-year yield has not fallen despite 175 bps of Fed cuts since September 2024

Silver's surge is structurally different — industry is being forced to bid against investors for physical supply for the first time ever. A contrarian oil thesis: WTI at $58 sits in a down cycle, US shale is maturing, and speculative positioning is at 15-year lows. Critical-minerals designation shifts demand dynamics by implying scarcity and encouraging inventory hoarding beyond ordinary consumption. The AI trade is differentiating — investors now punish excessive capex, and the rate of change in spend and returns is slowing. Big copper discoveries have collapsed from hundreds in the 1980s–90s to about six in the past five years, blunting any supply response.