Peter Boockvar & Brien Lundin - Geopolitics to Metals Mania: Venezuela, Critical Minerals, PMs

The KE Report Jan 10, 2026

Summary

Silver's surge is structurally different — industry is being forced to bid against investors for physical supply for the first time ever.

A contrarian oil thesis: WTI at $58 sits in a down cycle, US shale is maturing, and speculative positioning is at 15-year lows.

Critical-minerals designation shifts demand dynamics by implying scarcity and encouraging inventory hoarding beyond ordinary consumption.

The AI trade is differentiating — investors now punish excessive capex, and the rate of change in spend and returns is slowing.

Big copper discoveries have collapsed from hundreds in the 1980s–90s to about six in the past five years, blunting any supply response.

Brien describes Avino (referenced as "Vino") as one of the "autopilot" silver plays expected to be a great performer in the silver bull market

Brien argues Seabridge is a very interesting optionality play with big resources that has moved well and will likely continue to work
The guest expects Seabridge to sign a development partner at some point around year-end, noting the company is confident and open about that possibility
Brien classifies Seabridge as a "classic" in the optionality/resource category that has worked well and that he expects to keep working

Brien expects Vizsla to either go into production or be bought out at a big premium, listing it as an autopilot silver play

Brien groups Banyan with Seabridge as a "classic" gold optionality/resource play that has had great moves

Brien argues Prospector will be a great long-term opportunity to buy during the expected news vacuum of winter and early spring

Top takeaway Brien argues silver is in an unprecedented setup where industry must now bid directly against investment demand for real physical supply, a dynamic he says has never happened before and that self-exacerbates as prices rise
The guest expects gold to keep rising on autopilot and to be supported by central bank demand, with the Venezuela situation likely increasing that demand further in 2026
Brien believes copper is heading to $8 in a slower, steadier secular bull market driven by a sharp drop in big discoveries and lengthy permitting timelines that will delay supply response for years
The guest frames the current setup as a target-rich environment similar to the mid-2000s, where the job is no longer to find any commodity winner but to identify the outliers that will multiply several times over the next 18 months
Brien says he expects silver equities to catch up once Q4 earnings make the gap between metal and equity returns obvious, drawing more generalist money into the space

Top takeaway Peter argues that despite WTI trading near $58 and the US invasion of Venezuela, oil is in a compelling risk-reward setup for a cyclical rise, citing extreme bearish sentiment and positioning, maturing US shale production, OPEC discipline, and an inflation-adjusted cheap nominal price
The guest says the rest of the commodity complex is in a bullish posture with industrial metals leading, and that oil and ag could eventually "join the party" as critical inputs benefit from a weaker dollar and hard-asset demand
Peter argues the critical-minerals push changes demand dynamics by creating a hoarding effect, since declaring a metal critical implies scarcity and incentivizes extra inventory; he notes silver was recently added to the US Geological Survey critical list
The guest argues the AI trade is becoming more differentiated in 2026, with investors punishing companies for excessive CapEx (he cites Oracle and Meta) while narrowing in on true winners, and warns the rate of change in returns is set to slow
Peter flags persistently higher long-term interest rates across the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan as a major underappreciated risk, noting the 10-year yield has not fallen despite 175 bps of Fed cuts since September 2024