Willem Middelkoop

Willem Middelkoop: Gold Is Poised To Hit $10,000 and Silver to $200

• Top takeaway The guest argues his 2013 'Big Reset' thesis is now playing out — though delayed — with central banks fleeing into gold by 'market forces' (around 1,000 tons bought annually since the start of the Ukraine war) rather than by an IMF-led revaluation, and he predicts gold can run from the recent $5,000 retracement to $10,000.
• He says gold miners are only at the start of a real bull market: the GDX-to-gold ratio is just breaking out of a 13-year bottoming pattern, and the recent ~40% jump in stocks like Newmont, Barrick and Agnico over a few weeks was the strongest gold-stock rally in 20 years, driven by smart money and general investors entering at the breakout.
• He argues we are entering widespread metals shortages — calling copper a production-deficit story (with Panama, Grasberg and DRC disruptions taking 2–3% of world supply offline and 7 of 10 largest copper miners producing less year-over-year), silver a multi-decade deficit with peak mine production in 2016, and uranium a structural deficit supported by long-term contracts around $95/lb and 75 new reactors being built.
• He frames the moment as a monetary reset away from the post-Bretton Woods dollar system: the US is 'losing control' of the gold market (with ~30 days of +2% gold moves in the past year and pressure on COMEX paper gold), European central banks are repatriating gold, the Fed has added over $330B in Treasuries to its balance sheet in 12 months (his 'QE / Weimar' nuclear option), and even the Dutch ABP pension fund has sold over 80% of its US treasuries.

Central banks absorb roughly 1,000 tons of gold a year — about a third of global mine production — while general investors stay under-allocated to commodities. The GDX-to-gold ratio just broke a 13-year bottoming pattern, signaling the start of the real bull market in gold equities rather than the end of it. Seven of the ten largest copper miners are producing less than last year, with 2-3% of global supply offline after disruptions at Panama, Grasberg, and a DRC mine. Willem sees structural deficits in silver and uranium with thin float; long-term uranium contracts already price $95/lb and he expects silver to double. The guest argues the US has lost the Iran conflict and is retreating from Gulf bases, accelerating the multipolar reset he warned of in 2013.

Willem Middelkoop: The Next Financial Crisis, 'Perfect Storm' For Commodities & Mining Discoveries

• Top takeaway Middelkoop argues a generational commodity bull market has begun that could last to 2050, driven by structural supply shortages in copper, uranium, gold, and silver that prices alone cannot solve.
• He frames the moment as the live unfolding of his 'Big Reset' thesis: a multi-decade unwinding of US dollar supremacy triggered by the collapse of the petrodollar arrangement, surging global debt, and foreign buyers stepping away from Us Treasuries.
• He distinguishes 'Weimar light' - in which the US Fed and proxies now own roughly 70% of Treasuries, with ~$330B of new buying in the last 12 months - from outright Weimar hyperinflation, arguing the US still holds the 'gold card' option of revaluing its 8,000 tons of official gold.
• He says his fund runs roughly 50-60% in new discoveries, 30-40% in producing miners, plus a side pocket of starting producers (Skeena, Artemis Gold, G Mining), and reports the fund was up over 70% last year and over 20% YTD as of the late-August 2026 recording.
• He argues a new financial crisis could begin in the next several quarters, and when it does central banks will reach for the gold card and revalue gold sharply higher.

Weimar lite is already underway as foreign holders have dropped below 30% of US Treasuries and the Fed has absorbed $330B in a year. Central banks have bought around 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for five straight years -- about a third of global mine output. Gold is being reintroduced into the monetary system without any formal conference, as central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries. Gold producers print record free cash flow at PE ratios of 10-11, roughly a tenth of Magnificent Seven valuations. Discovery investors hold at least 1% stakes in tier-one deposits, scaling back after runs but never selling through production.

I Asked The Greatest Junior Mining Investors What They Are Buying Right Now | Rule Symposium

• Top takeaway Middelkoop frames his call on the bigger picture rather than daily price action: the commodity market bottomed in early 2016, when he was buying out his partners, retested in March 2020, and made a triple bottom in the first half of 2024.
• He thinks the sector is now in a new bull market that is roughly six months into a healthy technical correction.
• He expects gold and silver to find a bottom somewhere in the next few weeks to few months, followed by the start of the next leg up.
• From an Elliott Wave and technical standpoint he expects that next leg to be even stronger and longer than the last one, which he says should give the junior gold and silver miners considerable additional upside.

Gold and silver fell 30-50% from highs, and multiple guests frame the pullback as a buying window for quality developers, not a trend break. AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) explains the margin math: $4,000 gold against a $2,000 AISC. One guest argues gold pays no dividend, so valuation must run against debt, money supply and GDP instead of cash flow. Royalty companies and prospect generators are presented as the safer way to play gold and silver than owning operators outright. Several guests expect a wave of mining M&A, because producers shed high-cost operations and hold cash without a growth pipeline.

Silver Has Massive Upside

Willem Middelkoop argues silver's growing role in electrification and data centers is fundamentally changing its market valuation. Historical gold-silver ratios suggest silver has massive upside potential if it reverts to tighter historical averages. Emerging physical shortages in the silver market could trigger significantly larger price appreciation for investors.

They Need a Deal Now

Willem Middelkoop warns that pressure campaigns against Iran are destabilizing global trade and energy flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, threatening broader geopolitical and economic stability. Both China and the United States urgently need a path toward de-escalation and diplomatic negotiation.

The Big Reset Is Happening

Willem Middelkoop details his 'Big Reset' thesis, explaining how BRICS nations are actively challenging the U.S. dollar system, creating long-term inflationary pressures. Commodities are positioned to be primary beneficiaries of persistent inflation, debt stress, and a major capital rotation away from traditional financial assets. Investors should consider royalty and streaming companies, and physical precious metals, as gold and silver continue their steady migration from West to East.