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Willem Middelkoop: Gold Is Poised To Hit $10,000 and Silver to $200

VRIC Media Sep 10, 2026 41:19

Summary

Central banks absorb roughly 1,000 tons of gold a year — about a third of global mine production — while general investors stay under-allocated to commodities.

The GDX-to-gold ratio just broke a 13-year bottoming pattern, signaling the start of the real bull market in gold equities rather than the end of it.

Seven of the ten largest copper miners are producing less than last year, with 2-3% of global supply offline after disruptions at Panama, Grasberg, and a DRC mine.

Willem sees structural deficits in silver and uranium with thin float; long-term uranium contracts already price $95/lb and he expects silver to double.

The guest argues the US has lost the Iran conflict and is retreating from Gulf bases, accelerating the multipolar reset he warned of in 2013.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Named by the guest as one of the gold miners that surged roughly 40% in a recent breakout rally, alongside Barrick and Newmont, after the GDX-to-gold ratio broke out of a 13-year bottoming pattern.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Named by the guest as one of the gold miners that jumped about 40% in a recent breakout rally, alongside Newmont and Agnico, in what he called the strongest gold-stock rally in 20 years.

Key points on Newmont

  • Named by the guest (as 'Neumann's') as one of the gold miners that surged roughly 40% in a recent rally, alongside Barrick and Agnico, after breaking out of a 13-year bottoming pattern in the GDX-to-gold ratio.

Willem Middelkoop's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues his 2013 'Big Reset' thesis is now playing out — though delayed — with central banks fleeing into gold by 'market forces' (around 1,000 tons bought annually since the start of the Ukraine war) rather than by an IMF-led revaluation, and he predicts gold can run from the recent $5,000 retracement to $10,000.
  • He says gold miners are only at the start of a real bull market: the GDX-to-gold ratio is just breaking out of a 13-year bottoming pattern, and the recent ~40% jump in stocks like Newmont, Barrick and Agnico over a few weeks was the strongest gold-stock rally in 20 years, driven by smart money and general investors entering at the breakout.
  • He argues we are entering widespread metals shortages — calling copper a production-deficit story (with Panama, Grasberg and DRC disruptions taking 2–3% of world supply offline and 7 of 10 largest copper miners producing less year-over-year), silver a multi-decade deficit with peak mine production in 2016, and uranium a structural deficit supported by long-term contracts around $95/lb and 75 new reactors being built.
  • He frames the moment as a monetary reset away from the post-Bretton Woods dollar system: the US is 'losing control' of the gold market (with ~30 days of +2% gold moves in the past year and pressure on COMEX paper gold), European central banks are repatriating gold, the Fed has added over $330B in Treasuries to its balance sheet in 12 months (his 'QE / Weimar' nuclear option), and even the Dutch ABP pension fund has sold over 80% of its US treasuries.

Scott Bessent's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest quotes Bessent's view that the US will 'grow our way out' of the debt problem — which the guest dismisses as 'keep dreaming' given $2T-and-rising deficits and a national debt above $40T.
  • The guest quotes Bessent on Iran sanctions, saying Bessent told reporters he didn't want to 'send [the world's] financial system into turmoil' — which the guest reads as the de facto off-ramp from the Gulf conflict.

Ray Dalio's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host cites Dalio's book 'How Countries Go Broke' as describing the cycle of more autocratic, nationalist leaders (with Trump as a current example) that helps explain rising bond yields and selling of US debt by countries like Norway and the Dutch ABP.
  • The guest says he has 'a lot of respect for Ray Dalio,' calls him 'my older, smarter brother,' and reads his work — while contrasting Dalio's general-investor audience with his own gold-bug base to argue the public is starting to wake up to the bond reallocation risk.