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$3,400 Gold Before the Real Rally Begins

VRIC Media Jun 30, 2026

Summary

Vermeulen argues gold's ongoing selloff is a healthy multi-wave correction designed to shake out late buyers before the long-term bull market resumes.

He projects a pullback into $3,300-$3,800, where Fibonacci retracement levels (support zones measured from the prior rally) mark the buy area.

Fibonacci extension projections put gold at $8,000-$8,600 per ounce over the next couple of years, roughly a double from $3,600.

With the long-term trend up but short-term momentum down, Vermeulen says investors should wait for his targets rather than trade bounces.

He reports exiting gold above $5,000 and silver at $111, planning to re-enter and accumulate when precious metals hit his support levels.

Jay Martin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Says he will be buying more gold if it drops to $3,600, treating that downside target as his add level.
  • Acknowledges that Vermeulen's pre-conference warning of a gold selloff has played out, saying "Chris was spot on."
  • Frames the long-term question: with bulls pointing to $10,000 gold on debt and deficits, he asks what upside remains once gold hits the $3,600 target or reverses from here.
  • Notes gold is trading below its 200-day moving average with weak sentiment and asks whether it is oversold on the RSI.

Chris Vermeulen's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Expects gold to correct into the $3,300-$3,800 zone, the 38-50% Fibonacci retracement of the post-2015 rally, with $3,600 the key level - about 11% below the market as of the June 2026 conference - and argues the drop is a healthy reset that unwinds the late-buyer blow-off.
  • Projects the next major advance at roughly $8,000-$8,600 an ounce over the next couple of years, about a double from $3,600, saying his 10-year and two-year cycle targets point to the same price.
  • Says he sold out of gold above $5,000 and silver at $111 and is waiting for these technical levels to re-enter precious metals as a long-term buyer, possibly within days to a few months given current volatility.
  • Argues the selloff is a shakeout of late buyers: markets "shake you out or wait you out" - as in gold's post-2011 correction, which took about 14 years to break out - and turn higher right when most investors give up.
  • Says gold is oversold only on short swing-trading timeframes after the latest new low; for a long-term investor the true oversold, accumulate-and-stack zone is $3,600 down to $3,300.