Adrian Day Reveals His 3 Biggest Mining Positions Right Now

Mining Network Jul 9, 2026

Summary

Adrian Day sees gold retesting its lows, possibly toward $3,600, if the Federal Reserve hikes rates before the midterms.

Because a rate hike is already priced in, he argues any macro surprise for gold can only resolve in one direction.

Headline unemployment understates labour market slack: roughly 11 million people want full-time work but are not counted as unemployed.

Altius Minerals, Lara Exploration and Orogen Royalties each exceed 10% of his fund's assets, with cash held ready to buy dips.

He expects mid-tier miners, not the majors, to drive the next wave of mining M&A, with Barrick's African assets spun out or sold.

Day treats the roughly 5% share price fall after Agnico Eagle's recent rock problem as an overreaction and a buying opportunity, estimating the company loses only about 40,000-60,000 ounces a year for the next three years, with no injuries, no environmental damage and no sign the underground is affected.
Agnico Eagle is one of five large holdings he names for the accounts he manages that are heavily invested in gold equities.
He calls Agnico's takeover of Rupert Resources small fish relative to the larger deals the company could still do.
He expects Agnico to keep buying assets that fit areas where it already operates, and describes the company as the template for how mid-tier M&A is likely to look.
He cautions that a company being obviously next on a bigger buyer's shopping list is not necessarily good news, because without competing bidders no premium gets paid.

Day expects Barrick's new management to shed the African assets entirely, through a spin-off or sale, leaving Barrick as a holding company for the spun-off North American assets plus the South American assets, a structure he calls 'kind of weird'.
He expects Newmont to move on Barrick's planned North American listing, because Newmont wants to get bigger and he considers the Nevada assets strong with real potential in the development pipeline.
Newmont has pushed back, arguing it holds rights under the joint venture agreement and accusing Barrick of using JV assets to develop wholly-owned ones; Day thinks that dispute could be settled by a payment.
He records that the Saudi Arabian government mining division is interested in the African assets, noting the Saudis tried to buy into them when they were originally shared with government and regional holders and that they put money into Barrick, which was declined.
He notes that a sale of all the African assets would probably be structured as a merger rather than a takeover with a premium.

Day points to Equinox Gold as the company that has done a lot of M&A and that he expects to keep doing more.
He cautions that a past Equinox deal completed with no premium for shareholders, which is why he argues competitive tension matters more than a transaction simply happening.

Day names Kinross Gold as one of only three companies for which acquiring the recently contested deposit would have made sense, alongside Barrick and Newmont.

Day expects Newmont to move on Barrick's planned North American listing because it wants to get bigger, and because he considers the Nevada assets strong with meaningful potential in the development pipeline.
Newmont has told Barrick 'not so fast', saying it should not forget the rights it holds under the joint venture agreement.
Newmont has accused Barrick of using joint venture assets to develop wholly-owned assets; Day thinks that dispute could be easily settled with a payment.
He flags the open question of whether Newmont holds a first right of refusal if Barrick proceeds with an IPO of the North American assets.
Newmont and Barrick remain the one large merger he sees genuine potential in, although he does not expect other big names to merge at the moment.

Day points to mid-tier Fortuna Mining as the type of company likely to buy another operation in West Africa to fill its project pipeline.
His reasoning is that Fortuna's next mine is due to reach a feasibility study and a production decision by the end of 2026, after which management will be looking for the project after that.

Day names Franco-Nevada as one of the five large holdings in the gold-focused accounts he manages.

Day identifies Orogen Royalties (OGN, Vancouver) as one of three positions each worth more than 10% of assets in the accounts he manages, alongside Altius Minerals and Lara Exploration.
He says none of those three positions is one he is even dreaming of selling.

Day discloses that his firm owns more than 15% of Lara Exploration, making it one of three holdings each above 10% of assets in the accounts he manages.
He lists Lara (LRA, Toronto or Vancouver) among those positions and says none of the three is one he is even dreaming of selling.

Top takeaway Day sees a meaningful chance, which he puts at 10% to 40%, of gold retesting its recent low in the near term and potentially breaking down to $3,600, with mining equities falling sharply if it does, while still expecting a move back toward $5,000 during 2026.
He argues the US labour market is far weaker than the headline unemployment rate implies, citing roughly 5.2 million people actively looking for work who are not counted because they did not visit the labour exchange in the prior four weeks, plus 4.8 million working part-time while seeking full-time roles, and a participation rate that declined again.
He says the Federal Reserve will not raise rates before the US midterm elections, and that because a hike is already priced into gold, any surprise is more likely to be on the downside.
He is openly critical of the Fed as an institution but says he is pleasantly surprised by Chair Walsh, who he believes understands the Fed's problems including over-reliance on backward-looking data, while noting both political and economic limits on what any chair can achieve.
He is carrying roughly 6% to 8% cash, according to the last quarterly report, and calls this a good time to be buying while keeping reserves available in case gold retests its low, though he would not commit all of it at once.