Adrian Day

Adrian Day: Broken Bond Market

• Top takeaway The guest argues the US bond market is close to broken — there are not enough buyers willing to lend to the government for 30 years at roughly 5.5%, with 30-year yields at their highest since 2004 as of the interview and China and Japan selling.
• He predicts more financial repression, possibly 401(k)/IRA mandates to hold Treasuries, and expects the Fed to end up buying the Treasuries no one else wants — the inflationary dynamic he says explains gold holding up despite a strong dollar, rising oil, and higher yields.
• He argues the Fed has little room to keep raising rates: interest payments are roughly doubling as debt rolls over and already exceed defense spending, private credit and commercial real estate face more defaults, and credit card rates near 24-26% are squeezing paycheck-to-paycheck households.
• He expects Democrats to win the House, with the Senate more up for grabs, leading to more executive action, impeachments and lawsuits, and a worse climate for business investment and budget deals.
• He describes the mood at Beaver Creek as upbeat — companies are well cashed up and M&A is sensible rather than a repeat of 2011-12 — and names Orogen Royalties, which he owns, as the standout story.

Adrian Day argues the 30-year Treasury near 5.5% shows the bond market is close to broken, with too few buyers willing to lend long term. Gold is holding up against a strong dollar, rising oil and higher yields — which he reads as confirmation that the bond market is strained. He expects the Fed to become buyer of last resort for Treasuries, a step he says would be inflationary and justify gold ownership. Beaver Creek mining companies are well cashed up and senior producers are again eyeing early-stage projects, without the reckless 2011-era deal-making. He discloses a long position in Origin Royalties, a junior with cash and a royalty (a revenue share) that avoids dilution.

Robert Quartermain of Dakota Gold Corp. talks to Adrian Day | Metals Investor Forum Sept. 2026

• Top takeaway Frames Quartermain's move from CEO to co-chair as positive, arguing geologists should stay in their 'knowledge zone' and let an operator run the build-out.
• Draws a parallel to his Pretium experience, suggesting the right operator team can deliver once it is in place.

Heap-leach column tests in the pressure zone returned up to 90% gold recoveries, addressing the prior metallurgy question hanging over Richmond Hill. On private land in South Dakota's Homestake District, the project only needs Lawrence County and state sign-off — a defined permitting timeline. Dakota Gold (DC) advances Richmond Hill with a PFS due Q4 2026, full FS H1 2027, and $99M working capital as of June 30, 2026. Quartermain stepped from interim CEO to Co-Chair, handing the operator seat to Jack Henris so the build-out team drives daily mine decisions. Quartermain argues development-stage miners typically trade at 0.2–0.3x NAV and rerate as they de-risk toward production.

Silver Miners Will Crush Gold Miners | Adrian Day

• Top takeaway Adrian Day argues that despite rising yields, a strong dollar and elevated oil prices, gold's failure to sell off is a strong sign of underlying strength and a possible regime change.
• Day contends the bond market's structural problem — too few buyers for the supply of long-dated US debt at current yields — is fundamentally bullish for gold regardless of Treasury intervention.
• He blasts Treasury Secretary Bessent's long-end buyback operation as a 'Band-Aid,' arguing it is funded by increased short-end issuance and may reduce rather than add real liquidity.
• On mining stocks, Day calls Barrick's 4 Mile settlement with Newmont a 'really bad deal' and says Franco-Nevada is right to sit on its cash until a compelling deal appears.
• Day's highest-conviction stock call is silver: he says purer silver producers and explorers have come off hard since January–February 2026 and offer more upside over the next one to two years than gold producers, citing Rick Rule's similar view.

Day reads gold holding up against rising yields as a sign of underlying strength, and expects a stressed US bond market to eventually drag the Fed back in. Day calls Barrick's Fourmile-for-Nevada-Gold-Mines swap with Newmont an "awful deal," estimating Barrick effectively paid roughly $6-7B to clear its IPO path. Day expects Franco-Nevada to keep its $2B cash powder dry until a high-quality royalty deal surfaces, with Metalla Royalty floated as a possible fit. Over the next 1-2 years, Day prefers purer silver producers over gold producers, citing deeper pullbacks and stronger implied upside. Day flags many "silver" producers for actually mining more gold than silver, including Pan American Silver and First Majestic's Ermitaño deposit.

I Asked The Greatest Junior Mining Investors What They Are Buying Right Now | Rule Symposium

• Top takeaway Day says gold cannot be valued the way an ordinary asset is, because you value a normal asset on the cash it generates and gold famously pays no dividend, so it has to be judged relative to something else.
• On that relative basis he finds gold undervalued against its previous peaks, measured against inflation-adjusted world debt, the money supply and GDP, with debt having grown far faster than GDP.
• His worked example: for the dollar alone to be fully gold-backed you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price, and with 25% backing the implied price is far higher again.
• He argues the overriding issues of debt and deficits demand significant long-term currency depreciation, so metals and mining benefit in the long run.

Gold and silver fell 30-50% from highs, and multiple guests frame the pullback as a buying window for quality developers, not a trend break. AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) explains the margin math: $4,000 gold against a $2,000 AISC. One guest argues gold pays no dividend, so valuation must run against debt, money supply and GDP instead of cash flow. Royalty companies and prospect generators are presented as the safer way to play gold and silver than owning operators outright. Several guests expect a wave of mining M&A, because producers shed high-cost operations and hold cash without a growth pipeline.

Adrian Day Reveals His 3 Biggest Mining Positions Right Now

• Top takeaway Day sees a meaningful chance, which he puts at 10% to 40%, of gold retesting its recent low in the near term and potentially breaking down to $3,600, with mining equities falling sharply if it does, while still expecting a move back toward $5,000 during 2026.
• He argues the US labour market is far weaker than the headline unemployment rate implies, citing roughly 5.2 million people actively looking for work who are not counted because they did not visit the labour exchange in the prior four weeks, plus 4.8 million working part-time while seeking full-time roles, and a participation rate that declined again.
• He says the Federal Reserve will not raise rates before the US midterm elections, and that because a hike is already priced into gold, any surprise is more likely to be on the downside.
• He is openly critical of the Fed as an institution but says he is pleasantly surprised by Chair Walsh, who he believes understands the Fed's problems including over-reliance on backward-looking data, while noting both political and economic limits on what any chair can achieve.
• He is carrying roughly 6% to 8% cash, according to the last quarterly report, and calls this a good time to be buying while keeping reserves available in case gold retests its low, though he would not commit all of it at once.

Adrian Day sees gold retesting its lows, possibly toward $3,600, if the Federal Reserve hikes rates before the midterms. Because a rate hike is already priced in, he argues any macro surprise for gold can only resolve in one direction. Headline unemployment understates labour market slack: roughly 11 million people want full-time work but are not counted as unemployed. Altius Minerals, Lara Exploration and Orogen Royalties each exceed 10% of his fund's assets, with cash held ready to buy dips. He expects mid-tier miners, not the majors, to drive the next wave of mining M&A, with Barrick's African assets spun out or sold.

Adrian Day: Sentiment 'Unbelievably Lopsided' for Gold, Still 'Very Undervalued', Silver and Oil

• Top takeaway The guest argues the gold setup as of July 2026 is unbelievably lopsided: the gold bull-bear index has run around 7.5% bullish for weeks and even printed 0% one day, which he calls a contrarian setup that is hard to beat.
• He contends gold is undervalued versus previous peaks on an inflation-adjusted basis and relative to world debt, money supply and GDP, citing roughly $21,000 gold for 100% US dollar backing and about $5,600-5,700 for 25% backing.
• He says this cycle still has a long way to run before the usual end-of-cycle overshoot, and he would watch exponential moves (like January's in silver), sentiment extremes, surging ETF flows, bullion-dealer buying lines and premiums to NAV on physical gold ETFs as topping indicators.
• He advises anyone new or underinvested to invest across the spectrum now, starting with the largest, most conservative names such as Franco-Nevada, Wheaton and Agnico at historically low multiples.
• His stock-picking framework puts people and balance sheet ahead of the property for juniors: proven, honest management, enough money for the next 18 months or so, and one or two large supportive shareholders so the company can raise capital in bad markets.

Gold's bull-bear sentiment index has collapsed below 10% bullish, a lopsided extreme the guest treats as a classic contrarian buy signal. Bullion pays no income, so the guest values gold only relatively — inflation-adjusted, against global debt and money supply — and finds it cheap. The guest times cycle tops with exponential price moves, media saturation, ETF inflows, physical premiums, and novices handing out gold tips. In mining stocks, people and balance sheets beat geology: back honest, experienced teams with access to money and committed major shareholders. Major gold producers trade at historic-low multiples, and the guest sees value in unloved oil and Asian-facing thermal coal.

Gold Investors Are Giving Up! Why Adrian Day Says That's Bullish

Adrian Day argues that collapsed investor sentiment on gold is a contrarian buy signal, especially with central banks consistently accumulating physical bullion. Day contends gold now offers the best risk/reward ratio of any major asset class, warning that investors waiting for lower prices may miss the next move higher. Tether, the stablecoin issuer, has emerged as one of the world's largest gold buyers, adding significant new demand alongside continued sovereign central bank purchasing.

Gold Pullback Presents An Opportunity | Adrian Day

Adrian Day argues recent gold price weakness is a normal pullback within a longer-term bull market, driven by macroeconomic conditions rather than fundamental deterioration. Day emphasizes selecting quality mining companies with strong balance sheets and established production, as gold equity valuations remain historically disconnected from the metal price. The discussion highlights the importance of geographic diversification and political risk assessment when building a precious metals portfolio across different jurisdictions.

Nevada's Greatest Silver Bonanza, Finally Consolidated — and Ready to Drill With Modern Equipment

• Top takeaway Adrian Day probes the budget and land strategy, drawing out the $10 million initial program budget, the roughly 30-40% patented-claim position, and details on buying out leases and royalties so the Occidental is largely free of third-party royalties.

MacKay Gold & Silver has consolidated most of Nevada's historic Comstock district, giving it a fully funded 20,000-metre drill program starting on the parallel Occidental-Brunswick structure. Higher calcite and a lower gold-to-silver ratio suggest the Occidental sits near the top of the epithermal system (one formed by hot mineral-rich fluids near surface), leaving untested bonanza-grade potential at depth. Shallow oxide drilling has already returned 25 metres at 13.5 grams per tonne gold; management targets outlining one to two million ounces within a year, with first assays around late summer. A USD$60 million financing at $1.40 delivered roughly two to three years of exploration runway, largely royalty-free ground, and a veteran expert panel that could not identify a fatal flaw.

Adrian Day: Increasing Oil Exposure, The Most Undervalued Resource Stocks & Gold

Oil presents a strong buying opportunity due to chronic underinvestment and peaking US shale, with a plausible base case of $150 per barrel. Resource stocks are near 100-year lows relative to equities, signaling a long-term cycle shift favoring undervalued international markets over US tech. Gold and gold stocks offer the best risk/reward, supported by robust central bank buying and historically attractive free cash flow valuations.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management | Rule Symposium 2026: Rick Rule interviews

• Top takeaway Argues gold is probably still the best asset class on a risk-reward basis for the next 3 to 5 years, and says as of the May 2026 interview the correction tied to the Iran conflict is a good time to add to positions.
• Sees copper, oil and gas, uranium, and agricultural commodities as significantly undervalued relative to gold and silver, expecting other commodities to lead in the middle phase of the commodity bull cycle while gold and silver lead at the start and end.
• Believes a multi-year period of foreign-market outperformance versus the US is beginning, noting foreign markets trade at roughly 50-year relative lows and would need about 20% per year of outperformance for five years just to reach the last cycle low.
• Favors the British, Hong Kong, and Brazilian markets as 'well-stocked ponds' that went essentially nowhere for two decades while good companies became undervalued, while stressing he is a bottom-up investor and not making a macro or political call.
• Frames money management as assessing risk-reward at a given starting point rather than making predictions, and describes running the money management firm he founded in 1991 as his main occupation with his newsletter now a weekend pursuit.

Adrian Day argues gold still offers the best risk-reward of any asset class over the next three to five years. He sees copper, oil and gas, uranium, and agriculture as significantly undervalued relative to gold, with more upside in mid-cycle. Fifteen years of US outperformance have left foreign stocks at 50-year relative lows, setting up a multi-year period of international leadership. As a bottom-up value investor, he favors well-stocked ponds like Britain, Hong Kong, and Brazil, where quality companies stayed cheap for decades. Day says investors should assess risk-reward at the starting point rather than make predictions — cheap markets with visible problems can still be attractive.

The Metric That Matters Most

Adrian Day emphasizes that the most critical metric for evaluating mining companies varies significantly depending on the specific stage of the company. For major mining producers, free cash flow stands out as the single most important metric to evaluate above all other financial indicators. Regardless of the company stage, from explorers to royalty firms, management quality remains the ultimate deal-breaker for investment success.

“We’re Selling Oil Stocks Now” says Resource Fund Manager Adrian Day

• Top takeaway Day argues the US is sliding into stagflation — employment and retail sales are weakening while inflation stays stubborn — and expects commodities, which he says move on investment cycles rather than the economy, to perform as they did in the late 1970s.
• He is 'extremely bullish' on gold for the next 6-12 months as of the interview, explaining that gold's failure to rally on the Iran war is the normal pattern of pricing-in ahead of an event followed by profit-taking.
• On oil, he says the commodity itself remains undervalued but the stocks have rerated on buybacks and dividends and are no longer cheap, so in the week before the interview his fund was selling oil stocks rather than buying.
• He sees a structural copper shortage: supply five years out is already known, and even with EV and data-center demand cut in half there is not enough copper at today's price, so the price must rise to ration demand.
• He describes his gold-stock strategy as right-sizing positions — trimming outsized holdings like Franco-Nevada while still buying the big caps at reduced weights, and favoring juniors with revenue, strong balance sheets or supportive major shareholders who can fund them non-dilutively.

Adrian Day argues the U.S. is drifting into 1970s-style stagflation, with understated unemployment, maxed-out credit cards, and stubborn inflation eroding real wages. Gold typically rallies ahead of a geopolitical event and sells off as profits are taken; Day remains extremely bullish on gold for the next 6-12 months. Oil stocks have rerated on buybacks and dividends and are no longer cheap relative to oil, so Day has been selling them rather than buying. Gross underinvestment has left most commodities without supply cushion; even permitted copper projects need about five years before first production, so prices must ration demand. Day favors large-cap gold producers like Agnico Eagle on price-to-free-cash-flow value, sees some juniors as phenomenally undervalued, and holds 19.9% of Lara Exploration.