Adrian Day: Sentiment 'Unbelievably Lopsided' for Gold, Still 'Very Undervalued', Silver and Oil

Palisades Gold Radio Jul 8, 2026

Summary

Gold's bull-bear sentiment index has collapsed below 10% bullish, a lopsided extreme the guest treats as a classic contrarian buy signal.

Bullion pays no income, so the guest values gold only relatively — inflation-adjusted, against global debt and money supply — and finds it cheap.

The guest times cycle tops with exponential price moves, media saturation, ETF inflows, physical premiums, and novices handing out gold tips.

In mining stocks, people and balance sheets beat geology: back honest, experienced teams with access to money and committed major shareholders.

Major gold producers trade at historic-low multiples, and the guest sees value in unloved oil and Asian-facing thermal coal.

The guest names Agnico Eagle with Franco-Nevada and Wheaton as among the largest, most conservative gold stocks, trading at very low multiples on a historical basis as of July 2026.
He uses Agnico as his example of an obvious acquirer: if it is clear Agnico will buy a surrounding junior, it will happen on Agnico's terms and timeframe, which he calls a negative rather than a positive for that junior.

The guest holds up B2Gold as a company that has been very successful running mines in wildly disparate jurisdictions, despite the overruns at Goose he mentions.

The guest likes Fortuna's structure: four mines, two in Latin America and two in West Africa, giving project diversification within two concentrated jurisdictions.

The guest calls Franco-Nevada one of the largest, most conservative gold stocks and says it is selling at very, very low multiples on a historical basis as of July 2026.
He jokes that if Ben Graham came back and looked at Franco-Nevada's price-to-earnings ratio he would run a mile, but argues the stock is cheap relative to its own history.
He cites Franco-Nevada's price-to-EV as now well under its historical average, in the lowest 30th percentile.
He adds that on price-to-cash-flow Franco-Nevada sits in the lowest 20th percentile, concluding the valuations are very, very good and that he would absolutely start buying now.

The guest names Wheaton Precious Metals alongside Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle as a large, conservative gold stock selling at very low historical multiples as of July 2026.

Top takeaway The guest argues the gold setup as of July 2026 is unbelievably lopsided: the gold bull-bear index has run around 7.5% bullish for weeks and even printed 0% one day, which he calls a contrarian setup that is hard to beat.
He contends gold is undervalued versus previous peaks on an inflation-adjusted basis and relative to world debt, money supply and GDP, citing roughly $21,000 gold for 100% US dollar backing and about $5,600-5,700 for 25% backing.
He says this cycle still has a long way to run before the usual end-of-cycle overshoot, and he would watch exponential moves (like January's in silver), sentiment extremes, surging ETF flows, bullion-dealer buying lines and premiums to NAV on physical gold ETFs as topping indicators.
He advises anyone new or underinvested to invest across the spectrum now, starting with the largest, most conservative names such as Franco-Nevada, Wheaton and Agnico at historically low multiples.
His stock-picking framework puts people and balance sheet ahead of the property for juniors: proven, honest management, enough money for the next 18 months or so, and one or two large supportive shareholders so the company can raise capital in bad markets.

Top takeaway The guest invokes Rick Rule's saying that anything that can go wrong with a big property can also go wrong with a small one, to argue single-asset juniors lack a cushion.
He lists Rick Rule among the well-known investors whose presence in a junior signals it can always raise money, while cautioning that Rule may provide it on disadvantageous terms.

Top takeaway The host frames the episode's opportunity case around sector-wide underinvestment and gold and silver being down massively from their January peak.
He steers the interview from valuing gold bullion and miner valuations through management evaluation to oil and gas and thermal coal.

Top takeaway The guest says that if Ross Beatty holds around 9% of a junior, that company can always raise money because Beatty will lend to it if need be.
He names Beatty Capital among firms with reputations as long-term, supportive shareholders that juniors should look for.