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Silver Miners Will Crush Gold Miners | Adrian Day

The Deep Dive Sep 7, 2026 32:36

Summary

Day reads gold holding up against rising yields as a sign of underlying strength, and expects a stressed US bond market to eventually drag the Fed back in.

Day calls Barrick's Fourmile-for-Nevada-Gold-Mines swap with Newmont an "awful deal," estimating Barrick effectively paid roughly $6-7B to clear its IPO path.

Day expects Franco-Nevada to keep its $2B cash powder dry until a high-quality royalty deal surfaces, with Metalla Royalty floated as a possible fit.

Over the next 1-2 years, Day prefers purer silver producers over gold producers, citing deeper pullbacks and stronger implied upside.

Day flags many "silver" producers for actually mining more gold than silver, including Pan American Silver and First Majestic's Ermitaño deposit.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Adrian Day argues it is a 'pipe dream' to expect Barrick's North American spin-off to achieve the same valuation multiple as Agnico Eagle, since only a small slice of the joint venture would actually be spun out.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Adrian Day calls the 4 Mile settlement an 'awful deal' for Barrick, arguing the company effectively paid $6–7B — surrendering ~38% of an asset some analysts value at ~$20B for only $1.9B plus a couple of Newmont properties — just to clear the obstacles to its North American IPO.
  • He frames Barrick as being 'desperate' to IPO this year, with Newmont exploiting the joint-venture right of first refusal to block any share sale to third parties.
  • Day questions Barrick's stewardship of the asset, noting Newmont had previously flagged that Barrick was using Nevada Gold Mines operations to advance the 4 Mile discovery without proper cost allocation.
  • He says Barrick's plan to spin off only enough of its 61.5% interest to retain control (potentially putting only ~10% of the JV in public hands) is unlikely to earn full value recognition in the market.

Key points on First Majestic Silver

  • Adrian Day discloses he personally owns First Majestic Silver but notes its Ermitaño deposit, which feeds the Central Elena mine, is currently producing 'much more gold than silver.'
  • He uses First Majestic as an example that even 'purer' silver names still generate substantial gold by-production, blurring the line between silver and gold producers.

Key points on Newmont

  • Adrian Day argues Newmont held the structural upper hand in the 4 Mile renegotiation, in contrast to the original 2019 JV when Mark Bristow pressured Newmont into Barrick-led terms.
  • He credits Newmont with using the right-of-first-refusal clause to force Barrick to contribute 4 Mile into the joint venture at a discount, paying only ~$2B plus two Newmont properties that have not been meaningfully updated in roughly a decade and are 'not high priority' for Newmont.
  • Day says Newmont's strategy of throwing 'obstacles' at Barrick — including a contested accounting memo on shared Nevada Gold Mines costs — effectively forced Barrick to settle to clear its IPO path.

Key points on Pan American Silver

  • Adrian Day cites Pan American Silver as an example of a 'silver producer' that actually produces more gold than silver, supporting his view that the gold-versus-silver producer distinction is increasingly blurred.

Key points on Franco-Nevada Corp

  • Adrian Day defends Franco-Nevada's roughly $2B cash pile, arguing that the company's discipline — spending nothing on acquisitions in 2012–2014 before large stream deals in 2015–2016 — shows it is better to wait for the right deal than spend prematurely.
  • He expects Franco-Nevada to avoid buybacks at current prices, possibly bow to shareholder pressure for a higher dividend, and continue pursuing smaller streaming and royalty deals in Australia and other mining-friendly jurisdictions.
  • Day speculates Franco-Nevada could conceivably bid for Metalla Royalty because over half of Metalla's NAV and growth sits in assets where Franco already holds royalties (Côté, Copperworld, TACA TACA), making a premium easier to justify.
  • He cites CEO Paul Breen's rationale that acquiring whole royalty companies at 1.5–2x NAV forces Franco to pay for assets it does not want, which is why Franco has historically avoided company-level M&A.

Key points on Metalla Royalty

  • Adrian Day identifies Metalla Royalty's four strongest assets — Côté, Gosselin, Copperworld and TACA TACA — as representing over 50% of its NAV and roughly 60–70% of its growth.
  • He flags that Franco-Nevada already holds existing royalties on each of those four assets, framing them as natural incremental purchases if Franco were ever to pursue Metalla.
  • Day labels the Metalla acquisition scenario 'pure speculation,' not a forecast.

Mark Bristow's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Adrian Day credits Mark Bristow with being 'a pretty smart cookie' for originally carving the 4 Mile discovery out of the Nevada Gold Mines JV agreement, calling it potentially the single best asset in Nevada — bigger than Carlin or Goldstrike.
  • Day recalls Bristow's aggressive posture in the original 2019 JV — 'putting a knife to Newmont's head' by threatening a shareholder run if Newmont did not accept Barrick-led, 62% terms.
  • He notes Bristow has since been 'fired' as Barrick moved ahead with its North American spin-off and the 4 Mile restructuring.

Adrian Day's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Adrian Day argues that despite rising yields, a strong dollar and elevated oil prices, gold's failure to sell off is a strong sign of underlying strength and a possible regime change.
  • Day contends the bond market's structural problem — too few buyers for the supply of long-dated US debt at current yields — is fundamentally bullish for gold regardless of Treasury intervention.
  • He blasts Treasury Secretary Bessent's long-end buyback operation as a 'Band-Aid,' arguing it is funded by increased short-end issuance and may reduce rather than add real liquidity.
  • On mining stocks, Day calls Barrick's 4 Mile settlement with Newmont a 'really bad deal' and says Franco-Nevada is right to sit on its cash until a compelling deal appears.
  • Day's highest-conviction stock call is silver: he says purer silver producers and explorers have come off hard since January–February 2026 and offer more upside over the next one to two years than gold producers, citing Rick Rule's similar view.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Adrian Day cites Rick Rule's recent YouTube appearances as endorsing 'tremendous value' in the silver names, aligning it with Day's own preference for silver over gold producers on a 1–2 year horizon.

Scott Bessent's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Adrian Day says the gold and bond markets have 'seen through' Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond-market intervention because it does not address the underlying shortage of long-dated buyers.
  • Day characterizes Bessent's long-end buyback operation as a 'Band-Aid' and a sign of weakness — not strength — funded by new short-end issuance that he argues actually reduces net liquidity.
  • Day lists other Bessent-led incremental fixes — the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework, pressure on US banks to hold more Treasuries, and intervention to support the yen — as collectively small relative to the roughly $4T annual rollover of the roughly $40T US debt stock.