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America Is Running Out Of Buyers For Its Debt | Jay Martin

The Deep Dive Jun 30, 2026

Summary

Jay Martin argues the Strait of Hormuz closure forces oil-importing nations to sell US Treasuries, draining the foreign financing America's deficit depends on.

The guest expects the new Fed chair to choose printing money over raising rates, calling money-supply inflation a certainty from here.

Martin frames Gulf swap lines as disguised money printing — dollars lent to oil exporters so they avoid dumping US Treasuries.

He likens a US retreat from Hormuz to Britain's 1956 Suez moment, when sterling lost its reserve-currency role to the dollar.

On protection, he favors producers of non-discretionary raw materials — copper, timber, nickel — and gold as the tested store of purchasing power.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest expects new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to choose printing money to buy US Treasuries over raising rates, arguing higher rates would crush an American population already living on credit.
  • In the guest's framing, Warsh's dilemma is to either raise rates to attract foreign Treasury buyers, making mortgages and car loans more expensive, or have the Fed buy the debt that others won't.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway As host, Hyland frames the interview around how a closed Strait of Hormuz cascades through global trade into the US Treasury market and what it means for mining investors.
  • He presses Martin on whether the Trump administration planned the Iran intervention or rushed in after the quick Venezuela operation, and whether any off-ramp exists.
  • He asks Martin to explain the bond-market stress, citing yields spiking in countries such as Japan and the UAE asking for a swap line, and how the US can prevent the damage.
  • He pushes on swap lines, asking whether investors should see them as dollar loans, currency exchanges, or a cynical bailout.
  • He closes by praising Martin for avoiding conspiracy framing and explaining the mechanics, and directs viewers to The Jay Martin Show.

Jay Martin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Martin argues all roads lead to an inflated money supply: he expects the US to print money and buy the Treasuries other countries are selling rather than raise rates, calling that outcome 'a certainty in my books'.
  • He argues the Strait of Hormuz closure is the most consequential event in geopolitics and macro finance, cutting about a fifth of global oil but roughly 39% of the export oil market, so importers like Japan, Korea and Taiwan are hit much harder.
  • He sees the most probable off-ramp as an American retreat from the strait, an 'American Suez moment' paralleling Britain's 1956 withdrawal that ended sterling's reserve-currency role, coming at the cost of US credibility.
  • He argues the new Gulf swap lines (UAE now, Kuwait likely next) are the US bailing out its own Treasury market with printed dollars, and expects the growing, riskier swap-line club to become a mainstream money-creation pathway.
  • On positioning, he says his own money is in producers of non-discretionary raw materials such as copper, timber and nickel, and cites gold's staying power: an ounce still buys a luxury suit as it did in the 1920s.