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Canada Is Finally Fast-Tracking New Mines | John Passalacqua - First Phosphate

The Deep Dive Sep 18, 2026 14:35

Summary

Sovereign-backed financing from Switzerland and Denmark now covers roughly $400M of the US$475M capex needed for First Phosphate's Bégin-Lamarche project.

G7 Critical Minerals Alliance designation shortens the path to export-credit-agency support, letting the company secure sovereign guarantees before its feasibility study is complete.

Quebec's Filon fast-track permitting program compresses multi-ministry reviews into a single coordinated decision; the company targets permits in Q2-Q3 2027.

A feasibility study is due in early Q1 2027, with a final investment decision gated by financing, engineering, and permitting milestones.

Canada's new productivity mega deduction could lift project IRRs and NPVs by letting miners expense capital costs sooner, though eligibility details are still emerging.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Commends First Phosphate for moving faster over the last 12 months than any other junior miner he follows, calling it 'not the never-never program.'
  • Acknowledges that building a phosphate mine is typically very expensive, but credits the company with being 'pretty creative and pretty successful' at securing export-credit commitments.

John Passalacqua's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues Canada's investment climate has improved under Prime Minister Carney versus the Trudeau era, and frames the federal investment summit as 'the beginning' of further initiatives rather than an end point.
  • Calls the productivity mega deduction 'interesting' because letting capital costs be expensed sooner would lift IRRs and NPVs, but says the details are not yet out and he wants equal treatment for local and foreign investment.
  • Frames export credit agencies as ideal capital partners because they back their own exports and employment rather than trying to take control of the project.
  • Describes running resource estimate, PEA, feasibility, permitting and funding in parallel (rather than sequentially) as a 'novel' strategy that G7 and Canadian governments are responding to.
  • Justifies the $475M USD capex for the Bay and LaMarche project as 'very reasonable' and 'very low,' noting most phosphate projects run over $1B and some into the $2-3B range.