Criag Hemke - Busy Week Ahead: Inflation Data, Fed Testimony

The KE Report Jul 13, 2026

Summary

Hemke argues record deficit spending and soaring interest costs mean the Fed cannot hike for long and will eventually cap yields.

Real interest rates (returns after inflation) correlate most closely with gold, so this week's inflation data and Fed testimony could set the trend.

Gold and silver sit above year-ago levels, yet miner shares have lagged badly, and Hemke sees fat margins the market ignores.

Copper holds near all-time highs on long-term supply shortfalls, and rising copper tends to lift silver, which stays above breakout levels.

Rather than time bottoms, Hemke stays fully invested in miners, saying the most uncomfortable moments are the best buying opportunities.

Craig Hemke notes Agnico Eagle trades around $140 as of the July 13, 2026 recording and applies the 'would you buy it here?' test: he would be buying AEM at that price if he needed to put cash to work, which is why he is continuing to hold.

Craig Hemke says he raised a little cash on the Friday before the July 13, 2026 recording specifically to buy Aya Gold & Silver, describing it as essentially a silver producer despite the gold in its name.
Host Shad confirms the company is almost all silver, with what he calls one of the purest silver mines in Morocco.
Per the host, Aya is contemplating spinning out the gold asset it holds alongside its Moroccan silver mine.

Top takeaway Hemke tells listeners that for copper fundamentals they should simply follow Robert Friedland on X, saying his posts supply a 'boatload' of copper fundamentals and long-term positives.

Top takeaway Hemke's central argument as of July 13, 2026: with the US deficit at $1.367 trillion for the fiscal year through June — including a $120 billion June deficit, considerably worse than last June's surplus — the government will ultimately have no choice but to cap yields to service the exponentially growing debt, so the current rate-hike talk cannot last.
He would rather the Fed 'get it over with' — hike in July, possibly again in September, and stay hawkish at Jackson Hole — so the market can move on to what he sees as the inevitable return to cutting.
He attributes gold's weakness to positive real interest rates: with the Fed hiking, bonds pay a return even after inflation while gold pays nothing, which he says is the rationale behind gold getting dumped even as regular equities shrug off the same rate fears.
His call for the back half of 2026 is that metals have roughly 2-3% downside versus 15-20% upside, which he expects to extrapolate into better miner performance, while conceding he could very well be wrong.
On positioning, he stays nearly 100% invested in his financial assets at all times — a buy-and-hold approach since he re-entered the miners in late 2015 — raised a little cash on Friday to buy Aya Gold & Silver, and would be a buyer of Agnico Eagle near $140 if he had cash to deploy.

Top takeaway The host recaps John Rubino's article published that same morning comparing 2026 quarterly averages: gold fell from about $4,873 in Q1 to an estimated $4,350 in Q2, and silver from roughly $84 to $73.53.
Per the piece as recapped on the show, those lower Q2 average prices — alongside higher oil costs — still leave producers with 'really fat margins' heading into earnings that begin in late July 2026.