Darren Gordon, CEO of Centaurus Metals | Rule Symposium 2026: Rick Rule interviews
Summary
Centaurus Metals' Jaguar project holds 1.2 million tonnes of contained nickel in Brazil's infrastructure-rich Carajas mineral province, drilled out to measured-and-indicated status.
The project's net present value (NPV — today's value of future cash flows) of USD 740M against USD 380M build cost clears a 2:1 screen.
Cheap hydro power at 4-5 cents per kilowatt-hour targets bottom-quartile costs, letting a sulfide project compete with Indonesia's dominant laterite ores (energy-intensive to process).
Management expects over USD 150M in annual cash flow at current nickel prices against a roughly USD 250M market capitalization — an 18-month payout.
Funding is the near-term catalyst: debt proposals reach USD 320M, Glencore holds an offtake (sales agreement), and a final investment decision is targeted for end-September.
Rick Rule's takeaways
- Top takeaway Rule, who discloses he owns Centaurus shares, calls Jaguar 'a very, very good project' after reviewing its economics with Gordon.
- He applies Jonathan Goodman's 2:1 NPV-to-capex screen, says Centaurus meets it, and notes the NPV excludes cash flow beyond years 10-11, so a longer mine life would reset the value clock.
- He agrees Indonesian nickel producers are under pressure, arguing they are highly oil-price sensitive and face rising costs from environmental scrutiny of lateritic mining.
- He frames Centaurus's USD$150M-plus annual cash flow potential as an 18-month payout of its roughly USD$250M market capitalization.
Jonathan Goodman's takeaways
- Top takeaway Goodman does not speak in the interview; Rule invokes Goodman's classroom rule that projects with roughly 2:1 NPV-to-capex are worth considering and confirms Jaguar passes that test.